Countdown to Next Play
One Out; Two In
By Dennis Ranahan

If you didn’t see something that should have been obvious for all the right reasons that dictated a National Football League result how much credit can you afford yourself for talking about it after the game?

It’s not about credit. It is about knowledge.

When the St. Louis Rams blow away the Houston Texans by a 38-13 margin while listed as a 9 point underdog and plus 300 on the moneyline, it should have been the Top Pick of the Week. Instead it was eliminated from the final selections delivered on a game day last fall.

All the teams in the NFL have the ability to win and when certain factors align results consistently occur in pro football. The Houston Texans were favored by more than a touchdown even while saddled with a three game losing streak straight-up and an 0 for 5 point spread record when they hosted St. Louis last October.

The Rams came into that contest off a home win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, their second victory of the season and first point spread conquest. When two teams are slumping a clear advantage goes to the underdog, particularly when getting more than a touchdown on the spread. The logic behind this pattern is that the stress of a long losing streak can be lessened with the hope provided by playing a team you clearly can beat.

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Good Business
Bottom Line Profits
By Dennis Ranahan

The cost of a sports service is much more tied to point spread results than the price for the information. That being said, it certainly is most beneficial when solid information is delivered reliably for a fixed price.

One method that gamblers find attractive is a net winner program, where they only pay for the picks when they win. This method is mostly offered by boiler room operations that rely on new business to pickpocket successful clients. Subscriber gains are gouged by exorbitant fees from the service offering the point spread plays, some reported to cost as much as 50% of profits.

The reason the bettors lose in this business model is that they share profits while riding the crest of a winning run, but are left holding the bag when suffering through losing streaks. They also absorb all the actual financial risk. Hence the need for these operations is to focus on attracting new subscribers while losing dissatisfied customers in a commonly short period of time.

Many sports handicapping services will offer a dirt cheap opportunity for their first game, and if it wins begin a barrage of sales pitches that an even better play than the one that just won is now available and it only costs … something significantly more than the introductory game. When, and if, wins pile up the information made available is always promoted as better and therefore more costly.

When the good times end, and three, four or five straight wins are blunted by three wins in the next eleven selections, the dissatisfied customer is left with the debt incurred at the book and with the service holding significant fees for costing him or her money.

As in any financial endeavor, it is best to fix costs that can be and lock them in at an attractive rate. If one was so fortunate as to find a source that truly did offer an edge over the prevailing point spreads the cost is often prohibitive. I knew some friends in college who found such a source in the 1970’s, and while none of them could afford the $2000 annual fee for the NFL season, five of them got together and gained the picks for a much more affordable $400 each.

In those days late information was delivered strictly by phone on the morning of the game, as it was when I opened Qoxhi Picks in 1981. With the advent of the Internet the ability to offer clients accurate up-to-the-minute game details and the latest spread shifts, weather conditions and an array of other facts and figures that influence the contest outcome is offered in an easy to access format.

For the past two years in the Friday edition of the Reno Gazette Journal Qoxhi has released reasons for picking one game off the upcoming NFL schedule. Those Friday columns, one game each week and the Super Bowl, have compiled season records of 15-3 and 12-6, a combined 27-9 for a winning average of .750. That alone might prove the integrity of the Qoxhi selections, but in fact that is but a small sample that shows nearly a 70% success rate on Top Picks since 1981 and only two losing seasons in 33 years of operation.

I am often asked why I charge so little for my service, given the information could be sold for ten times as much based on the bottom line results. Some have cautioned me that the low price of the Qoxhi Picks service cast doubt on the strength of the information while the axiom of you get what you pay for is employed.

More than forty years ago my friends in college learned that lesson as their $2000 service truly did provide information warranting that cost. But, no matter how many games they won few of my buddies actually showed any significant profits. Their $50 bets just weren’t enough to land them substantially on the other side of their $400 subscription cost.

Bottom line results need to work in harmony with a well orchestrated money management strategy. Individuals in a position to responsibly risk a thousand or more on each game can afford the cost of a top service based on pure dollar and cents numbers.

Here is the math. I didn’t know it then, but I know now that based on my college buddies wagering $50 a game in a properly orchestrated financial plan they had an opening account balance of $1000. Based on those numbers a 40% gain for my college buddies was only a breakeven point, while a $1000 bettor has a $20,000 available bankroll … the five dime a game player by the same arithmetic has $100,000 to start the season.

When the $100,000 client gains 40% on their opening account balance they earn $40,000 and profit $37,500 if the information cost $2500. The person with an opening account balance of $20,000 is risking $500 on most games and a 40% gain would generate $8000 profit on the games and achieve the initial goal of having the client gain at least three times the cost of the service.

But, that same client who is taking all the financial risk has a bottom line profit of only $5500, a profit margin below 30%. Today, the cost of the Qoxhi Picks phone service is $3500, and for individuals wagering large sums of money the benefits from both the information offered on line and the ability to talk to me on Sunday is a worthwhile investment.

But for the client wagering $500 on a game, it is too expensive when factoring in risk versus return ratios. Yet, the Internet allows an efficient conveyor belt for the Qoxhi information including the most important tool in football to transform wagering from a gamble to an investment, the online Account Manager. The website delivers exactly the same picks offered online that the big money players receive by phone.The Qoxhi website made available at a bargain price works twice in favor of the client; first with the out of pocket expense and second maintaining an advantage of profit versus cost for the clients of at least 3 to 1.

I know, it’s cheap. In fact, less than my college buddies were paying for great information forty years ago. But, for the sake of clients and my main objective, repeat customers based on robust bottom line profits, it is what it is.

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Chicago Bears 0-0
Cincinnati Bengals 0-0
Buffalo Bills 0-0
Denver Broncos 0-0
Cleveland Browns 0-0
San Francisco 49ers 0
Chicago Bears 0
Cincinnati Bengals 0
Buffalo Bills 0
Denver Broncos 0
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