During the regular season Qoxhi Picks factor in a combination of both physical and motivational elements in isolating point spread winners. The preseason is designed to get players and teams in shape to compete at the highest level. This weekend a game shows up that more clearly than most illustrates how both Qoxhi and NFL organizations prepare and, equally important in my business, how the public reacts to those factors.
Included in physical factors for Qoxhi is the point spread. Is the current line favorable or unfavorable to a particular side? Is the line driven by true talent, public perception, injuries or some other factor? On the Qoxhi site the Point Spread Price chart reveals when a team is overpriced or holds value on the line.
Okay, a number of elements are evaluated each week on all the National Football League games … and this week we can find a number of those factors dramatically in play on one contest … the Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers.
The opening line on this game had the home standing Packers a field goal favorite. This is a typical “no big deal” preseason spread for a quality home team against a quality opponent. But, this opening number was shifted by four points based on the fact that Green Bay Head Coach Mike McCarthy announced that Aaron Rodgers would not participate this week. Commonly, the third week of preseason action finds most teams going with their projected starters at least through the first half, often into the third quarter. So, the Packers not playing their star quarterback is news and done on the heels of Green Bay losing his favorite target, Jordy Nelson, who was injured during last Sunday’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers and out for the year with a knee injury.
In light of Rodgers being shelved for this contest the books made a four point adjustment on the point spread, moving the line from the Packers favored by three to the Eagles a one point road favorite. That move set off bells on the Qoxhi Point Spread Price chart to indicate that Green Bay had high value in the home underdog role. Always, a move this dramatic has to be evaluated for the rationale behind the shift. The injury to Nelson and the benching of Rodgers are factors that truly dictate a move in the line … but once that move was made the public betting world didn’t let it sit at the Eagles favored by one point.