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Winning Paths
By Dennis Ranahan

Two games this weekend to decide National Football League conference winners. The New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings are point spread favorites to meet in Super Bowl LII. Since the National and American football leagues merged in 1970 to create the National and American football conferences, the home team in this round of the playoffs has done very well, both straight up and against the point spread.

In fact, the home team has won the past eight championship games with the last road team cracking a Super Bowl berth in this round being the 2012 Baltimore Ravens, who upset the New England Patriots in Foxboro, 28-13. The Ravens also followed up that win with a victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII.

Since 1970, home teams in this round of the playoffs are 64-30 straight up and a robust 54-39-1 versus the point spread.

In other words, to land on a road team in this round one better have some pretty good reasons when also factoring in that home teams favored in this round of the postseason win 55 of 75 games straight up with a point spread record of 44-30-1. The only numbers the road teams win when factoring in the point spread is when they are getting double-digits on the line, in those games the road teams are only 2 and 10 straight-up but a winning 8-4 with the big spreads.

As for home team underdogs in this round, like the Philadelphia Eagles are this week against the Minnesota Vikings, the home underdog is 8-9 straight-up and 9-8 versus the point spread.


HEADLINE PLAY ARCHIVES
Winning Paths Headline Play Conference Championships
Off Center Headline Play Conference Championships
Name Game Headline Play Conference Championships
On Defense Gameday Divisional Playoffs
What They Want Headline Play Divisional Playoffs
Role Playing Headline Play Divisional Playoffs
Happy Alone Headline Play Divisional Playoffs
Luck Lands Headline Play Divisional Playoffs
Same Old Tune Gameday Wild Card Weekend
Pass it On Headline Play Wild Card Weekend
Wild Card Deal Headline Play Wild Card Weekend
Fact Check Headline Play Wild Card Weekend
Open Season Headline Play Wild Card Weekend
Clearer and Clearer Headline Play Wild Card Weekend
The Best for Last Gameday Week 17
Step Ahead Headline Play Week 17

FROM THE QOXHI PLAYBOOK

WHAT DO I GET AS A QOXHI SUBSCRIBER?

SCORE HERE


WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN TURNING A PROFIT WHILE WAGERING ON THE NFL?

SCORE HERE


YOU KNOW THE POINT SPREAD … BUT DOES IT OFFER VALUE?

SCORE HERE



Minnesota Vikings 12-4-1
New England Patriots 12-5
Philadelphia Eagles 11-6
Buffalo Bills 10-6-1
Kansas City Chiefs 10-7
Carolina Panthers 10-7
JAGUARS - PATRIOTS
Sunday, January 21 - 12:05 PM
AT

VIKINGS - EAGLES
Sunday, January 21 - 3:40 PM
AT

New England Patriots 102
Minnesota Vikings 98
Jacksonville Jaguars 82
Philadelphia Eagles 74
San Francisco 49ers 0
Chicago Bears 0
The NFL

Too Good to Air

WINNING NOT REQUESTED

Looking for Laughs

Whatever Happened to Jimmy Kimmel

Banking Two Thoughts
About Money

By Dennis Ranahan

Now, I want to be really careful how I state this and I don’t want you to get the wrong idea. So, let me state it clearly and then I respectfully ask you to read the whole article so you know what I mean.

It’s not about the money.

Okay, don’t overreact to that statement, but rather open up to the possibility of holding two thoughts at the same time; it’s not about the money and it’s all about the money.

Those two statements are not in opposition, but rather a key factor in turning sports wagering from an emotional rollercoaster to a steady-as-she-goes investment. Here’s why, the books prey on the emotions of gamblers who are quick to predictable actions that almost always leave them in the red. Why? Because gamblers wager more when they are ahead until they no longer are while thinking they are playing with “house” money. In an even worse scenario, some bet more when they are behind in an attempt to get even until they have lost much more than they ever thought they would risk.

Gamblers often base their wagers not on the strength of a point spread proposition, but rather on the success or failure of the previous result. In other words, past money wins or losses are determining current wager amounts.

That’s what I mean when I say it’s not about the money. A wager should never be about the money and only about the strength of the current point spread proposition. The amount wagered on a particular game should only be based on the value of that play … not what happened in any previous result.

When that method is followed the only thing that really matters can be realized, bottom line profits. Because, and never lose sight of this … it’s all about the money.


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