HOME SIGN UP LOGIN ADD PAGE TO FAVORITES
POINT SPREADS
CURRENT LINES
POINT SPREAD MOVES
POINT SPREAD PRICE
POINT SPREAD STANDINGS
LIBRARY OF NFL RESULTS
NFL SCHEDULE
CURRENT SEASON
THIS WEEK
TEAM-BY-TEAM
WEEK-BY-WEEK
NFL STANDINGS
GAME INFORMATION
HEADLINE PLAY
NFL EFFICIENCY FORM
STADIUM WEATHER
NFL INJURY REPORT
GAME DAY SHEET
QOXHI PICKS
TOP PICK
PREMIUM PLAYS
BULLET PLAYS
RATED SPREAD PLAYS
ACCOUNT MANAGER
BOLD FRIDAY
CURRENT WEEK
FRIDAY SELECTIONS
COMPLETED WEEKS
COMPANY HISTORY
MONEY MANAGEMENT
HEADLINE PLAY
     
Poised for Takeoff
By Dennis Ranahan

The team that wins Super Bowl XLV is not coming from nowhere, but from a set of factors that clearly dictate results based on the predetermined set of conditions entering the season. Talent is necessary, but to succeed skill and precision on the field needs to be complimented with a favorable motivational set of circumstances.

While the physical skill of all teams can be evaluated by what squads gain the most yards and are successful at preventing their opponents from doing the same, having those statistics culminate with a championship is determined as much by the chemistry of a team as it is by pure statistics.

Every team has a perceived expectation level, and while every squad in August will claim their goal is to win the Super Bowl, teams as weak as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Detroit Lions would consider the season a success if they won as many games as they lost, even if they fell short of the playoffs. On the other extreme, teams with a goal they consider realistic that includes a Super Bowl win, squads such as the Indianapolis Colts or Minnesota Vikings, would be disappointed without a win in the postseason. If they compiled more wins than losses in the regular season, but failed to qualify for a playoff berth, they would consider the season a failure.

Expectations versus talent and chemistry can be reduced to a mathematical equation, and when expectations are higher than talent dictates, failure is almost certain to follow. When talent is ahead of expectations, then a team that missed the playoffs the previous two seasons can be perfectly poised to win the Super Bowl.

The New Orleans Saints are a recent example. Expectations where high after their run to the NFC Championship Game in 2006, and those high hopes were met with a pair of seasons that did not produce a winning record. Last year, the Saints talent was improved over recent years, and the expectations dropped. 

For the New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl in 2009 they had to win more postseason games than all the previous Saints teams had combined to win since the formation of the franchise in 1967. In the forty-two year history of the New Orleans Saints they had won two postseason games. The Saints first postseason victory was earned in 2000 while Jim Haslett was head coach and New Orleans defeated the St. Louis Rams in an NFC Wild Card game. The second postseason win, over the Philadelphia Eagles in a 2006 Divisional Playoff Game, came at the Superdome by a 27-24 score … a game the home team was favored by 5½ points.

The Saints won the Super Bowl last year not because of what they had done in previous seasons, but based on where they were positioned to perform when talent and motivation were both weighed in charting their direction. And while the Saints won the Super Bowl over the Indianapolis Colts last season, they now carry higher expectations than even their extraordinary talent dictates.
NFL QUIZ
2009 Season

1)    Did Atlanta; Green Bay; San Francisco; or Cleveland earn the best point spread record in the NFL last year?

2)    How many NFL players have gained 2,000 rushing yards in an NFL season?

3)    Five Conference Championship Games have involved the two highest scoring teams in football … what is their Super Bowl record?

4)    Which team ended the regular season with seven straight point spread wins; Denver; Indianapolis; New Orleans; or Cleveland?

5)    What team is currently favored to win Super Bowl XLV next February in Texas?

ANSWERS ON JUMP PAGE

 

Question 1:

GREEN BAY PACKERS The Packers 11-4-1 mark edged out two other NFC teams for the top spot in earning money for their backers in 2009. The Atlanta Falcons matched the Packers wins number at 11, while losing five against the number. The San Francisco 49ers lost as few as Green Bay, four games against the line, but won one less contest while twice pushing on the spread. Two AFC teams finished the regular season with 10-6 marks against the point spread, including the AFC Champion Indianapolis Colts and the Cleveland Browns. The Browns made a late rush on point spread statistics with seven straight winning spread decisions to close out the regular season, including straight-up wins in their final four regular season games. Two elements that will feed NFL results revealed in these stats are that statistically speaking, a team that wins their final three or four regular season games and still ends the year with a losing mark, is a poor percentage play the following year. What the final four wins generate, particularly given some of the late season wins were against opponents playing meaningless games, is to raise expectations above talent level. Secondly, the Falcons good showing in 2009, a season they could have dipped dramatically given their break-out campaign and playoff appearance two years ago, bodes well for them in 2010. Right now, the two highest ranked teams in the NFC on Qoxhi charts are the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons; one-two.

Question 2:

SIX Chris Johnson, the Tennessee Titans third-year runningback out of East Carolina, rushed for 2,006 yards in 2009 to become the fifth player to match the standard set by OJ Simpson when he became the first NFL runner to top 2,000 yards for the Buffalo Bills in 1973. Simpson’s 2003 rushing yards now ranks sixth on the all-time list that is led by Eric Dickerson, who rushed for 2,105 yards as a member of the Los Angeles Rams in 1984.  It was 13 years before the 2,000 barrier was broken again after Dickerson’s breakout campaign, but in 1997 Barry Sanders burst for 2,053 yards out of the Detroit Lions backfield, and the following season, Terrell Davis gained 2,008 yards while playing a key role in the Broncos first Super Bowl Championship. Second on the all-time rushing list is Jamal Lewis, who picked up 2,066 while leading the Baltimore Ravens to the playoffs in 2003.

Question 3:

5-0 The New Orleans Saints became the fifth straight Super Bowl winner who advanced with a Conference Championship Game win in a matchup between the two highest scoring teams in the league. The Saints scored the most points during the 2009 National Football League regular season, 510, and the Minnesota Vikings ranked second in scoring with 461 points. All five Conference Championship Games between the two highest scoring teams in football have involved National Football Conference squads. Both the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys finished one-two in scoring in three straight seasons beginning in 1992, and in all three campaigns the two NFL powerhouses met in the NFC Championship Game. The Cowboys won the first two meetings, and San Francisco got a win in 1994 before defeating the San Diego Chargers in Super Bowl XXIX. The Cowboys beat the Buffalo Bills to complete both the 1992 and 1993 seasons. In 1989, the San Francisco 49ers led the league in scoring, and met up with the second highest scoring team in that year’s NFC Championship Game, the Los Angeles Rams. The 49ers followed their victory over Los Angeles with a 55-10 thumping of the Broncos in Super Bowl XXIV.

Question 4:

CLEVELAND BROWNS  Following a Monday Night home loss to the Baltimore Ravens by a 16-0 score, the Browns went on a seven game point spread winning streak that began with straight-up losses, but point spread victories, against the Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengals and San Diego Chargers. Twice as an underdog, and then twice as a favorite, the Cleveland Browns beat and covered versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars to close out their 2009 regular season schedule. The Green Bay Packers also avoided any point spread losses over the final eight weeks of the regular season, a run that began with a victory over the Dallas Cowboys the week after the Packers were upset by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Florida. Yet, the Packers point spread record over the final seven weeks of their regular campaign was 6-0-1, pushing on the spread in a Week 11 home win over the San Francisco 49ers, 30-24.

Question 5:

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Early odds on Super Bowl XLV, which will be played at Cowboys Stadium next February 6, has the San Diego Chargers a slight edge over the Indianapolis Colts, both teams currently priced near 8 to 1. Vegas odds currently post the New Orleans Saints a favorite to defend their NFC Championship, with current odds around 5 to 1 on the Saints and 6 to 1 on the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is hoping to become the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium, although the San Francisco 49ers played a geographical home game in Super Bowl XIX, when they beat the Miami Dolphins at Stanford Stadium, which is located in Palo Alto only 30 miles from Candlestick Park, the 49ers home stadium.

 
Green Bay Packers 11-4-1
Atlanta Falcons 11-5
San Francisco 49ers 10-4-2
Cleveland Browns 10-6
Indianapolis Colts 10-6
Minnesota Vikings 9-6-1
San Francisco 49ers 0
Chicago Bears 0
Cincinnati Bengals 0
Buffalo Bills 0
Denver Broncos 0
Cleveland Browns 0

Back To Top - Home - Contact Information
Information provided by http://www.picksfootball.com