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HEADLINE PLAY
     
Primed to Pounce
By Dennis Ranahan

Sixteen percent.

That is how often the point spread shifts the straight-up winner to a wager loss. Pick the winner of the game, and regardless of the line you have 86% point spread winners.

Tonight, the Cincinnati Bengals host the Miami Dolphins and the Bengals are going to win the game. Does that mean they are an 86% play?

It does if they actually do win, which real odds are pegged closer to 4 to 1 as evidenced by the moneyline on this game set at (-400). While point spreads only come into play 16% of the time, giving eight points at home off back-to-back losses log in with a 46% chance of having the point spread affect the final result.

If the Bengals do win, they still have an edge to collect money but it is reduced from an 86% probability to a 54% chance. Winning while wagering on football requires weeding out as much chance as possible and replacing it with sound verifiable logic. This game appears close on the spread and history supports that assertion.


HEADLINE PLAY ARCHIVES
Primed to Pounce Headline Play Week 4
Overcome Spike Headline Play Week 4
No and No Headline Play Week 3
Good and Bad Headline Play Week 3
Undefeated Trips Gameday Week 3
Winning Shave Headline Play Week 3
Home Explosion Headline Play Week 3
Belichick Headline Play Week 3
Likely Standings Headline Play Week 3
Other Reasons Headline Play Week 2
Schedule Traps Headline Play Week 2
Staying Close Gameday Week 2
Double Play Headline Play Week 2
Ravens Take Nine Headline Play Week 2
Chicks Love Offense Headline Play Week 2
One and Out Headline Play Week 2

FROM THE QOXHI PLAYBOOK

YOU KNOW THE POINT SPREAD … BUT DOES IT OFFER VALUE?

SCORE HERE


WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN TURNING A PROFIT WHILE WAGERING ON THE NFL?

SCORE HERE


HOW MANY WAYS ARE THERE TO CAPITALIZE ON THE NFL POINT SPREAD MARKET?

SCORE HERE



Denver Broncos 3-0
Dallas Cowboys 3-0
Philadelphia Eagles 3-0
New England Patriots 3-0
Minnesota Vikings 3-0
San Diego Chargers 2-1
DOLPHINS 7 - BENGALS 22
BENGALS WIN -7.5 / UNDER 46
AT

COLTS - JAGUARS
Sunday, October 2 - 6:30 AM
AT

BROWNS - REDSKINS
Sunday, October 2 - 10:00 AM
AT

BILLS - PATRIOTS
Sunday, October 2 - 10:00 AM
AT

SEAHAWKS - JETS
Sunday, October 2 - 10:00 AM
AT

PANTHERS - FALCONS
Sunday, October 2 - 10:00 AM
AT

LIONS - BEARS
Sunday, October 2 - 10:00 AM
AT

TITANS - TEXANS
Sunday, October 2 - 10:00 AM
AT

RAIDERS - RAVENS
Sunday, October 2 - 10:00 AM
AT

BRONCOS - BUCCANEERS
Sunday, October 2 - 1:05 PM
AT

COWBOYS - 49ERS
Sunday, October 2 - 1:25 PM
AT

SAINTS - CHARGERS
Sunday, October 2 - 1:25 PM
AT

RAMS - CARDINALS
Sunday, October 2 - 1:25 PM
AT

CHIEFS - STEELERS
Sunday, October 2 - 5:30 PM
AT

GIANTS - VIKINGS
Monday, October 3 - 5:30 PM
AT

Seattle Seahawks 93
Arizona Cardinals 91
Carolina Panthers 88
Denver Broncos 86
Green Bay Packers 85
Cincinnati Bengals 84
The NFL

Too Good to Air

WINNING NOT REQUESTED

Looking for Laughs

Whatever Happened to Jimmy Kimmel

Banking Two Thoughts
About Money

By Dennis Ranahan

Now, I want to be really careful how I state this and I don’t want you to get the wrong idea. So, let me state it clearly and then I respectfully ask you to read the whole article so you know what I mean.

It’s not about the money.

Okay, don’t overreact to that statement, but rather open up to the possibility of holding two thoughts at the same time; it’s not about the money and it’s all about the money.

Those two statements are not in opposition, but rather a key factor in turning sports wagering from an emotional rollercoaster to a steady-as-she-goes investment. Here’s why, the books prey on the emotions of gamblers who are quick to predictable actions that almost always leave them in the red. Why? Because gamblers wager more when they are ahead until they no longer are while thinking they are playing with “house” money. In an even worse scenario, some bet more when they are behind in an attempt to get even until they have lost much more than they ever thought they would risk.

Gamblers often base their wagers not on the strength of a point spread proposition, but rather on the success or failure of the previous result. In other words, past money wins or losses are determining current wager amounts.

That’s what I mean when I say it’s not about the money. A wager should never be about the money and only about the strength of the current point spread proposition. The amount wagered on a particular game should only be based on the value of that play … not what happened in any previous result.

When that method is followed the only thing that really matters can be realized, bottom line profits. Because, and never lose sight of this … it’s all about the money.


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