When the Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers look across the line at each other tonight as the National Football League plays their second Thursday night game of the season, they may think they are looking into a mirror.
They are.
Both the Dolphins and Panthers advanced to the postseason last year after missing the playoffs in 2007. Miami did it while bouncing off a league worst 1-15 mark and under a new head coach, the Panthers recovered from a losing mark two years ago to the best record in the NFC last season. When a team comes from nowhere one year to the playoffs the next season, they almost always stumble the year after their breakthrough to the playoffs campaign.
This was scheduled to be a down year for the Dolphins based on that pattern.
While Carolina missed the playoffs two years ago, they still had the nucleus of a good team and the same quarterback and head coach in place, not necessarily a prescription for doom after their 2008 playoff run.
But, both teams mirrored each other this year in losing their first three games of the season before rebounding with four wins in six games to create a chance to even their season records at 5-5 with a win tonight. Whatever team wins this game, scheduled to kickoff at Bank of American Stadium at 5:20 p.m. Pacific Time, will have a legitimate chance of recovering from their 0-3 start and earning a playoff berth.
The loser of tonight’s contest in Carolina can begin planning a vacation for the first week in January.
The Dolphins are without Ronnie Brown tonight, and, for that matter, the rest of this season after the multitalented runner sustained an injury last week in Miami’s win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Losing a runningback for a team can be crippling, but in the Dolphins case, it could be down right debilitating. Brown was the trigger behind the wild cat offense, which saw him run, throw and thrive while taking direct snaps in the formation introduced by Tony Sparano and his staff last year.
The homestanding Panthers also have injury concerns tonight. Offensive tackle Jordan Gross, arguably the best player on the Panthers offensive front, is lost to an injury. In the Panthers offensive backfield, both of their talented runners, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, are fighting physical problems that probably won’t prevent them from playing tonight but could inhibit their effectiveness.
What that leaves us with in Carolina is two teams desperate for a victory, and both squads weakened by key injuries.
How close are these two squads?
Well, the point spread is the Panthers favored by a field goal, which is the standard amount of points allowed for home field advantage.
That indicates two evenly matched teams.
The Dolphins have rushed for 1406 yards this season, the Panthers 1409. The Dolphins have the better rush defense, but their pass defense is ranked among the league’s worst.
In other words, the advantages go this way and that way and come out to two evenly matched teams. Now, normally I love balanced matchups, it produces games in which motivation can dictate the result because neither team is good enough to overcome a bad motivational spot, and both teams are good enough to take advantage of a good one.
But, when I weigh the motivational factors on this game I get a near perfectly balanced set of circumstances. Yet, if I was to offer a paper thin edge on the motivational elements, it would lean the Dolphins way based on their need to overcome the obviously critical loss of Ronnie Brown.
Not enough of an edge to bet on … barely even enough of a factor to point out.
When I was a kid we used to go to Playland at the Beach, and they had mirrors there that would distort a person to look taller, shorter, fatter or skinnier than they really were. That is a lot like the feeling I got studying these two teams for the past four days.
They are having mirror image seasons alright, and tonight one of these teams is going to put their season in focus and one is going to drop out of the race … but I’ll be darned if I can be sure what team is what right now.
Playland mirrors all over again.