I have a client that I seem to disappoint every Sunday morning.

He is a big bettor, puts more money than most people’s house payment on every pick, and has done very well with the information he has gotten from the Qoxhi Picks service for more than two decades. But, despite this, he always seems disappointed on Sunday morning.

A typical Sunday Morning phone call in the hours before the National Football League starts play almost always begins with him in a cheery mood, offering me a warm greeting that includes him looking forward to another winning day.

Then he gets the picks.

It is as if I hit his enthusiasm over the head with a sledge hammer when I offer teams like the Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers or St. Louis Rams, as that week’s top investment prospect. In fact, those teams have been offered as Qoxhi Top Picks in recent weeks, and all three beat the spread while the underdog Raiders and Buccaneers defeated the Eagles and Packers respectively straight-up

I know he hates most the plays I deliver, and questions the sanity of the work we do at Qoxhi Picks on a weekly basis. Yet, religiously every Sunday he plunks huge sums of cash on our recommendations and in most weeks, and almost all seasons, collects profits.

We are not in the business of generating confidence in the morning as much as we are earning profits on the results. Most of our plays are underdogs, a lot of them ugly, and most of them win straight-up while even a higher percentage win money when the point spread is factored into the equation. But, sometimes, a favorite generates a wonderful point spread investment, and it often happens when the virtues of the underdog is being expounded by many.

Case in point, this Sunday the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the New Orleans Saints and are getting 11 points on the spread. Those that have been paying attention have noticed that since their bye week and change of quarterbacks, rookie Josh Freeman makes his third start on Sunday, the Buccaneers are 2-0 against the spread and just missed beating the Miami Dolphins straight-up last week after collecting their first win of the season two weeks ago with a win over the Green Bay Packers.

Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints have run their winning streak to 9 straight games, but have not covered a point spread this month … losing their third straight decision to the number last week in a narrow win against the St. Louis Rams at the Edward Jones Dome.

Few gave the Buccaneers a chance against Green Bay two weeks ago, and “no one” offered any hope to the Rams versus the Saints last week. But, because the Bucs beat the Packers, and covered the spread while losing a close one last Sunday in Miami, the stock in Tampa Bay’s prospects has risen dramatically and many see the virtues of taking the big spread this week with the Bucs at home.

Turning on the Saints is getting easy because people backing their prospects have lost money three weeks in a row, and smart guys know that when an undefeated team begins to slip on the spread they most often will continue to fail against the line until they regroup after a straight-up loss.

What those facts fail to account for is the motivation added to the better team this week in Tampa, the undefeated Saints. They have lost three defensive backs through injury this season, were forced this week to sign Chris McAlister out of retirement to help patch their depleted secondary, and are challenged to regroup and reestablish their swagger this Sunday.

Therefore, Josh Freeman does not get to face an overconfident Packers team, like he did in his first start, or one of the worst pass defenses in football, like he did last week while facing the Dolphins. Instead, the rookie gets a talented Saints defense that is inspired to compensate for their injuries and motivated to not allow their perfect season to end against a team that today the Saints respect more than they deserve because of two Buccaneer performances accomplished in perfect motivational and matchup situations.

On the other side of the ball, Drew Brees is looking to end the turnover problems first experienced when New Orleans traveled to Florida for their Week Seven meeting with the Miami Dolphins. The Saints recovered from an early deficit in that game that was created by three Brees interceptions, and went on to cover the point spread with a late pick-six. The following week, New Orleans won the game but lost the point spread on a Monday night against the Atlanta Falcons while suffering four turnovers, and the same fate, straight-up wins but point spread losses, were caused by two turnovers versus the Carolina Panthers two weeks ago and three lost possessions at St. Louis last Sunday.

What that leaves us with this week in an undefeated Saints team with real concerns about protecting the ball and defending the pass … and a Buccaneers team that can only win against an overconfident opponent or a squad with a real weakness. Instead, they get perhaps the best team in football with a focus on improving their recent play … sorry Bucs; this isn’t going to be pretty.

But, at least I think we’ll offer one of our favorite clients a pick that will show up as good news and not dim his cheery mood on Sunday morning … and provide the only thing we care about later in the day … a trip to the payout window.

Qoxhi Picks: New Orleans Saints (-11) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers