I know myself well enough to accept that if I’m given enough time with any National Football League matchup I will eventually gravitate to the underdog. My inner conversation can go something like this: The Saints are going to kill the Buccaneers; that’s a lot of points to lay in an NFL game; do the Bucs know how much trouble they are in; are the Saints overconfident; where does New Orleans get the motivation to blowout a team they are so perfectly poised to kill; can’t lay that many points. Maybe the Bucs with two touchdowns against the Saints is the side in this game.

Poof … a perfectly fine favorite play on the Saints over the Bucs two weeks ago vaporizes before the game is assigned a Money Management Number.

Ok, it is a weakness, I’m taking intense therapy to try and overcome my needed fix for points on the spread even when it is detrimental to the winning percentage of Qoxhi Picks. Maybe it was advantageous that the Dallas Cowboys played on Thanksgiving Day when they were a favorite selection on the site this week … I’m not sure I have yet recovered enough to make it seven days without finding a reason to like the dog.

For example, we’ve got a game tonight that on Tuesday I was pretty sure was going to back the home team favorite … the Baltimore Ravens over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

I had my reasons for liking the home team in the early work-ups on this game, was still strongly backing John Harbaugh’s squad’s chances on Thursday when the Cowboys were released while giving points, but knew by Friday that my enthusiasm for the Ravens was waning.

I have my reasons, don’t you know someone with a problem always does. The Ravens have gone from a must win situation and a team that was going to be favored by less than a field goal on the spread to a unit that today is forced to lay eight-points for their backers.

The reason for this dramatic shift in the point spread?

Ben Roethlisberger, the defending Super Bowl winning quarterback, is still seeing birdies in his head from last week’s overtime head crunch he got before his team lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in the extra period. He will not play today, and the veteran backup who replaced him during the overtime game at Arrowhead Stadium, is not starting either. Instead, Dennis Dixon, a second-year player out of Oregon, gets his first NFL start.

What the Steelers get here is a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start on the road against a Ravens defense that can baffle even proven veterans with both their ball-stealing tactics and head-jarring hits.

Oh, that is why the favorite is being backed by the bettors like they are the only choice in this game.

Maybe they are?

I will have to answer to my underdog therapist this week if I end up surrendering to this line and end up taking the points in a game that seemed such a clear favorite play earlier?

“I was really going to lay 2 points, even 2½ points in this game,” I will explain in Wednesday’s session. “But, holly Toledo, now I can have the defending Super Bowl Champions plus 8-points because Roethlisberger is out of the game?”

And, I suspect my therapist will ask why that is a problem?

“Because,” I will explain with sweat now beading up on my brow, “The Steelers have had trouble this year because they are defending Super Bowl Champions which forces them to lay bloated lines and is not a motivational boost. But now, with the loss of Roethlisberger, they actually have added motivation against a team that looked like they were ready to win. And, I think Pittsburgh will play their most spirited game of the season in an effort to get a first win for their young quarterback, Dennis Dixon.”

And, how did that theory work out?

“Well,” I will say now with my head down and realizing so much work is still to be done to cure me of underdogitis, “That’s why I’m here.”

Don’t let my infliction cost you money tonight … even if I tell you to bet on the Steelers plus the ridiculously high spread, don’t.