In the spring, when the NFL schedule makers are assigning sites and times for games, do you think they laugh out loud in the comfort of their cozy offices when someone suggests, “How about a night game in Green Bay in December?”
“Cool,” another NFL official might add … a comment I suggest not shared by the team forced to wear white jerseys at Lambeau Field tonight where the temperatures will be in the low 20’s. Fortunately, it is not snowing, or else this game could be like the one played at Lambeau in 1985 when quarterback Steve Young led his Tampa Bay Buccaneers onto the frozen tundra to take on the Packers in whiteout conditions.
Years later, while working with Steve when he was a member of the 49ers, he conceded to me that he couldn’t even see his Tampa Bay receivers through the falling snow that day while they were wearing white pants and jerseys. “I could see the Green Bay defenders,” Young told me, “So I just had to guess what side of the defender my receiver was on and throw it there in hopes it would find him.”
It didn’t.
The Buccaneers lost that game 21-0, and tonight the best defense in football will try and pin a similar lopsided score on a visiting December opponent. That’s right, Green Bay has the number one ranked defense based on yards allowed, while the more likely choice for best defense in the NFL, tonight’s opponent, the Baltimore Ravens, are down a notch from previous seasons. Funny thing about statistics … they don’t always reveal relevant information.
So, while the team that won a Super Bowl to conclude the 2000 season based almost exclusively on their stout defense, the Baltimore Ravens, don’t rate out at the top of the charts this season. But, despite giving up more yards on the ground and through the air than Green Bay, the Ravens have one important number … they allow less points. The Packers, with all their statistical edges, have allowed 27 more points that the Ravens this year.
In fact, the Packers are a series of conflicting factors.
For instance, they have allowed a league high 44 sacks, but despite an offensive line that looks like the turnstiles at a race track, they don’t have the companion number that usually goes with a quarterback under pressure; a high number of turnovers. Instead, Green Bay has the best turnover ratio in football, entering this week’s action with a plus 17 on the giveaway/takeaway chart, five better than the next best team, the New Orleans Saints.
They hold opponents yardage down, but give up a lot of points. They allow their quarterback to serve as an easy target for oncoming rushers, but Aaron Rodgers does not get caught tossing the ball up for grabs. They have lost twice to their old quarterback and the Minnesota Vikings this year, but have lost only two other games. Green Bay was good enough to beat the Dallas Cowboys by double digits three weeks ago … but that was on the heels of providing the only competition this year the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were able to beat.
Who are these guys?
I’ll tell you, the Packers are good enough to take advantage of great motivational spots … and subject to falling flat when an opponent holds the motivational edge over them. So, to win a Packers game this year, all we need to know is who has the motivational advantage … if there is one.
Tonight, there is.
The Packers would really, really like this game … it would further improve their postseason hopes which, even though the Vikings lost last night to the Arizona Cardinals, are most likely reduced to a Wild Card spot. With a victory tonight, the Packers would still trail Minnesota by two games and lose the tiebreaker to Brett Favre and company based on their two regular season losses. A Green Bay win would greatly enhance the prospects for an NFC Wild Card berth, but a loss doesn’t end their hopes.
Ok, Green Bay wants it.
But, on the other side of the field are the Baltimore Ravens, who like Green Bay have already lost twice to their division leader, the Cincinnati Bengals, leaving an AFC Wild Card berth their only viable path to the playoffs.
The Ravens got a much needed win last week over the Pittsburgh Steelers, which was their sixth win of the season, one less victory than the Packers have scored in 2009. What that creates tonight is a Ravens team that has to win to stay in the thick of their playoff race, versus a Packers team that would remain in prime Wild Card position despite suffering a loss tonight.
In the game of need versus want, the Ravens get the edge.
Now, Baltimore has only sacked opposing quarterbacks 21 times this season, not an impressive number … which means, we take a proud Ravens defense, not certain of their abilities, perfectly poised to have their best defensive game of the year.
What does that mean for Aaron Rodgers?
It means that the ambulance that is always parked at an NFL game for tending to severe injuries might also be well served tonight to have a black Hearst on site too. Because, according to my stats, and I believe them a lot more than the stark numbers the NFL posts, Rodgers is going to get killed tonight.
Not figuratively … literally.
Qoxhi Picks: Baltimore Ravens (+3½) over Green Bay Packers
