The Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers tonight in a game that tests one theory to the max, and could leave the defending Super Bowl Champions with a losing record 14 weeks into the 2009 season.

Who saw this coming?

The Steelers have lost four straight games, none perhaps more agonizing than last week’s home defeat to the Oakland Raiders. Somehow, this season, losing to the Oakland Raiders is akin to getting beat up by a girl … no offense to Glenn Carano’s or Muhammad Ali’s daughters intended … both who could kick my ass I suspect.

But, back to football, the Steelers may have lost to the Raiders, but they were not the first … although they were the first highly regarded team to absorb a loss from the Silver and Black in front of their home fans. The Raiders did surprise two division leaders, the Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals, and, just for curiosity, how did the Eagles and Bengals play the week after they were “embarrassed” by the Raiders?

The Eagles won and covered a Monday Night Football meeting with the Redskins in Washington, and the Bengals, well the Bengals haven’t yet covered a point spread since they lost to Oakland three weeks ago. They followed up that loss with wins over the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions, but in neither game were they capable of covering the double-digit favorite role they were forced to accept.

The Steelers would have been a double-digit favorite tonight too, except the weather has turned so bitter in Cleveland that the airport is on alert to divert flights elsewhere. This is not exactly conditions to get excited about laying double-digits with a road team that hasn’t won a game in a month.

But, it doesn’t eliminate the possibility.

Now, for that theory that is going to get tested perhaps beyond its usefulness tonight; A team that losses does not necessarily get motivated to play their next opponent when a win still seems a near certainty. The thought that a Steelers team will play well simply because they lost last week is hogwash when they are playing a weak opponent. Motivation comes from fear, fear of failure, fear you are about to get kicked around on national television, and even in the midst of a losing streak, the Steelers don’t really fear the Browns.

For good reason.

Cleveland is the worst team in football this year and Pittsburgh has beaten their AFC North Division rivals a dozen times in a row, most by scores that would clear tonight’s spread. The Steelers don’t get any motivation playing a lousy opponent, no matter if they lost last week or not. That is why Pittsburgh was a sitting duck to the Oakland Raiders last Sunday … sure they had lost three in a row including an embarrassing defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 11, but they were not going to lose to the Raiders on their home field.

Wrong.

Oakland beat Pittsburgh in a furious fourth quarter that saw the Raiders and Steelers trade points like it was 1973 and a game between quarterbacks Ken Stabler and Terry Bradshaw. But, it wasn’t.  It was the defending Super Bowl champs against a Raiders team that threw more touchdowns, three, in the fourth quarter last Sunday at Heinz Field than JaMarcus Russell has thrown all season.

Do you see the problem here?

The Steelers are so much better than the Browns statistically, plus five yards in the passing game alone, but do they really have the motivation to play a dominating game?

Finally, after much debate in our offices, I was convinced that the theory of needing a good opponent to get motivated was trumped tonight by a Steelers team needing a win to end a four game losing streak and get themselves back in the playoff hunt.

I was convinced to overlook a 14-rated motivational edge to the homestanding Browns. I was convinced that the Steelers were the pick tonight. But, just as scheduled flights out of Cleveland tonight may get grounded, that same weather eliminated assigning the Steelers a Money Management Number tonight.

Damn, I really wanted to play Pittsburgh tonight … but, not in this weather.