We are in uncharted territory here with the National Football League in 2009. For the first time ever two teams have advanced to the 15th week without a loss, and one, the Indianapolis Colts, has already won their Week 15 matchup. The other, the New Orleans Saints, play tonight on the NFL Network against the Dallas Cowboys. Kickoff is set for 5:20 p.m. Pacific Time.
The Saints path to perfection has been a wonderful combination of timely defensive plays and an offense that can score from anywhere on the field at any time during a game. Drew Brees is having one of the best quarterback seasons in history, and yet, while he is doing it, Peyton Manning is having the best year ever by a quarterback.
If the Saints and Colts don’t represent the NFC and AFC in Super Bowl XLIV on February 7 at Dolphin Stadium … we are missing out on one of the best quarterbacks of all-time in the biggest game of the year.
I hope they both make it, but odds say, both don’t.
Tonight, is a showcase for Brees in his highlight laden campaign when in front of his home fans he puts his air-show on display in primetime against a suspect Dallas defense. The Cowboys have lived up to their reputation of losing after November, dropping both of their December decisions this year to the New York Giants and San Diego Chargers. After losing to the Giants on the road and San Diego in Dallas, the Cowboys need this game to stay in control of their fate for a playoff berth.
While winning 13 consecutive games straight-up, the Saints have not consistently overcome the bloated point spreads they are forced to carry; losing three of their past five point spread decisions. The Saints enter tonight’s game against the Cowboys with their highest Point Spread Price of the season … not a good thing for a team that has struggled to beat the spread in recent weeks.
The bigger question from a pure football perspective is whether the Saints can extend their winning streak with a win over the Cowboys, a proposition that is iffy at best given the importance of the outcome towards playoff prospects for each of these NFC squads. The Saints have already won the South, and can clinch home field advantage in the NFC with a win tonight and a Minnesota loss Sunday night when they play the Carolina Panthers.
Even in defeat, the biggest thing the Saints lose is their chance for a perfect season, because New Orleans would remain in control of winning top spot in their conference playoffs with season ending wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers. The Cowboys, conversely, need this win to avoid the possibility of falling to third place in the NFC East behind both the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants.
The NFC Playoffs look like this as we enter the final three weeks of regular season action. The Vikings are going to win the NFC Central, probably with the second seed and opening postseason week bye. The Eagles appear the best team in the NFC East currently, while the Giants have been in a full fade after losses in six of their last eight games. If the Eagles join the Saints, Vikings and Arizona Cardinals as NFC Division winners, the Cowboys would need to earn a playoff spot with a Wild Card berth. They currently trail the Green Bay Packers by a game and the tiebreaker based on a head-to-head loss at Lambeau Field in November.
It would appear that if the Cowboys were to miss the playoffs, it would probably be due to losing the Division to Philadelphia and the Wild Card to another NFC East rival, the Giants. Both the Eagles and Giants are favored to win their games this week, Philadelphia versus the San Francisco 49ers at Lincoln Financial Field and the Giants over the Washington Redskins at FedExField on Monday night.
In others words, the Cowboys need to break this losing spell in September to avoid missing out on a chance at the Vince Lombardi Trophy in January. After tonight’s game, the Cowboys play a pair of division games at Washington and at home versus the Philadelphia Eagles to close out the regular season.
The Cowboys can still dictate their postseason prospects by winning their final three games, but, to do that, their winning needs to begin against the undefeated Saints at the Louisiana Superdome tonight.
Like their chances?
I do. I like their chances at winning this game and ending the Saints perfect season … and love the point spread proposition with the Cowboys plus eight.
Qoxhi Picks: Dallas Cowboys (+8) over New Orleans Saints
