Here is your Week 15 afternoon quiz: Do the Minnesota Vikings get a motivational spike tonight because the New Orleans Saints lost last night to the Cowboys and left the door open for them to get within shouting range of stealing home field advantage for the National Football Conference playoffs?
Decide for yourself whether you think the Vikings will play better tonight because the Saints lost yesterday before you read the next paragraph, which is the right answer.
No.
One would think that a team would be spurred to an extra effort when they have a chance to close on a team they have been chasing all year long. But, in truth, what consistently happens is that a loss by the first place team is followed by a loss by the second place team. In this week’s real life example, the Saints loss last night should statistically be followed tonight by a defeat suffered by the Vikings, who Brett Favre leads into Carolina for a showdown against the team he defeated in the NFC Championship Game before winning his only Super Bowl to conclude the 1996 season.
Favre has always scored well against the Panthers while playing for the Green Bay Packers, he put up 30 points in the 1996 NFC Championship Game, and followed that performance with a 31-10 win in l997 and a 37-30 triumph in 1998.
Brett Favre’s success with the Minnesota Vikings this season is not pinned exclusively to his offense; the Vikings also have one of the best defenses in football and last week regained the services of defensive back Antoine Winfield. He had missed more than a month with an injury, but his return to the purple defense was evident last week when he created havoc in Carson Palmer’s passing plans as he spearheaded an easy 30-10 Vikings victory over the visiting Cincinnati Bengals.
Tonight, while the Vikings are getting players back in their drive to the playoffs, the Panthers are without key personnel on both sides of the ball. What that leaves us with for this game is the team in the better position to excel motivationally, the Carolina Panthers, in trouble man-to-man. Getting eight or nine points at home with pride on the line against a team headed for the postseason is a prime spot for an underdog to excel.
But … do we really want the Panthers with a pair of their best offensive linemen sidelined with injuries, and an inexperienced quarterback against the Vikings sack happy pressure defense?
No.
Do we want the Vikings with that defense against a team that could be overmatched and under the steady leadership of Favre?
No.
But, and here is the kicker, if I had to wager on this game, lets say I needed a bus ticket out of Bakersfield and had only half the fare, I’d take the investment side of this proposition and back the Panthers with the points.
But, I might be stuck in Bakersfield overnight.
