All six National Football Conference playoff teams are known for the National Football League playoffs which start next week. Still, on the final Sunday of the season, a day in which all 32 teams are in action, how teams are positioned behind the top seed New Orleans Saints will be determined in games played this week.
The American Football Conference is not quite as clear. The four division winners are set, with the Indianapolis Colts holding the top seed and the San Diego Chargers the other playoff team with an opening week postseason bye. As for the AFC Wild Card, seven teams are still in the hunt for the two spots. Even that has some math skill testing elements, as the Denver Broncos are currently plotted with one of the two Wild Card spots, but even with a win on Sunday over the Kansas City Chiefs, the Broncos could miss postseason competition.
The seven teams alive for an AFC postseason slot include last year’s Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, who need to both beat the Miami Dolphins on the road and get help for an opportunity to defend their title in the playoffs. The Dolphins are also still holding out hope for a postseason berth, and they would first need to beat Pittsburgh and then get more help than appears logically plausible … but, mathematically possible.
The two teams in the AFC that can secure a Wild Card berth with a win and no help from other results are the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets. The Ravens meet the Oakland Raiders on the road, and could there be a tough matchup for a prohibitive road favorite. Last year, the much-maligned Raiders knocked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers out of the postseason with a win in Florida on the final day of the regular season. This year, the often pitiful Oakland squad has gained wins over two teams already locked into postseason berths, the Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals, and two teams hoping for a playoff game, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos.
The Raiders get an advantage here because of the motivational edge a team gets that can play a game with only a spoiler role at stake against a squad that needs the win to advance. The pressure to succeed can force a heavy favorite to play not to lose, while a squad in the position of the Raiders can play as loose as Lindsay Lohan at a frat party.
The best position a team can be in that needs a win to advance might be the position the New York Jets will find themselves in when they kickoff against the Cincinnati Bengals in the Sunday night game. That is, a team that needs a win against a squad already ticketed for the postseason with their seed wrapped up. The Bengals will know whether the game against the Jets means anything to them before they kickoff, and the factor that will determine if the Bengals gain an advantage with a win will be determined earlier in the day when the New England Patriots meet the Houston Texans.
The homestanding Texans need a win and a lot of help to gain a Wild Card slot, while the Patriots, who have already won the AFC East Division race, can wrap up the third seed in the postseason with a victory. If they fail at Houston, then a win by the Bengals would move them into the third seed in the AFC Playoffs and drop the Patriots to the fourth seed.
While both the third and fourth seeds will open postseason play at home against a Wild Card opponent, the third seed could host the AFC Championship Game if both the top seeds get beat in the Divisional Playoff round.
How often does this happen?
Not too often, but last year the Arizona Cardinals did host the NFC Championship Game when both the two top seeds with byes the first week got upset in the Divisional Playoff round, the New York Giants by the Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans by the Baltimore Ravens, after the Cardinals knocked off the other division winner, the Carolina Panthers, the same weekend.
Trust me, New England Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick likes to put ever edge in his team’s favor, and the idea that they are going to lay down and rest players in Houston may turn out to be as bogus as Terrell Owens contributing to team unity.
But, if the Texans do beat the Patriots, then the advantage for a Jets win is slightly reduced given the Bengals will have something to play for. If the Patriots win, then the Jets become a solid point spread proposition … why else to do you think the books have them currently installed as a double-digit favorite over Cincinnati?
Ok, before we know the significance of the Sunday night game, what can we focus on before the day’s action starts?
Beware of a good team with nothing to play for; a team that is locked into their postseason slot and focused on the games that matters to them … the playoffs. The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints have the top seeds in the AFC and NFC Playoffs locked up, and now that the Colts don’t even have a perfect season possibility on the line, they may not even travel to Buffalo to play an outdoor winter game that means nothing.
This game is so sweet for the Bills the books have been unwilling to even set a line on the contest as of Wednesday. Same goes for the Saints journey to Carolina where the Panthers have breathed life, and perhaps saved John Fox’s head coaching job, win wins the past two weeks over the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants.
And then there is the San Diego Chargers, winners of ten consecutive games and nothing to play for when the Washington Redskins come calling on Sunday. The Redskins have a tough defense, one that could injure starting quarterback Philip Rivers or runningback LaDainian Tomlinson. How willing do you think Norv Turner is to risk injury to his key players when all that matters is two weeks later when they host a Divisional Playoff round game?
In fact, nothing could be better for San Diego than trimming the sails on their run into the postseason with a loss here … something we might just as well collect on in the process.
Qoxhi Picks: Washington Redskins (+4) over San Diego Chargers