The National Football League completes Wild Card Weekend today with a pair of games. The first is set to kickoff at 10:00 a.m. Pacific Time and matches the Baltimore Ravens against the New England Patriots in Foxborough. The later contest is scheduled to begin at 1:40 p.m. and features the Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals.

The early game pits a pair of AFC teams that both have physical obstacles to overcome. On the Ravens side, they are playing their third emotional road game in three weeks, beginning with a loss at Heinz Field to the Pittsburgh Steelers two weeks ago, and then a playoff saving win last Sunday at Oakland against the Raiders. From the west coast to the east coast to continue their three game road trip has the Ravens hoping for another road game next week, an occurrence that would require them beating the playoff experienced Patriots on their home field.

The Patriots physical factors to overcome revolve around injuries on both sides of the ball. The most crucial are on the offensive side, where leading receiver Wes Welker was lost for the postseason during last week’s loss at Houston, and Tom Brady is nursing both a fractured finger and cracked ribs.

If ever a team could go in and get the better of the Patriots on their home field in the playoffs this appears to be a likely week to get that done. But, are the Ravens the team to do it?

The opening spread on this game had the home team favored by 6½ points, a number that was quickly reduced by at least a field goal before most books posted a spread on the game last Sunday night. The line move indicates the Patriots injuries are more severe than the Patriots are revealing, and no group has a better grasp of injuries than the people posting the spreads on the games. Despite more than 60% of all wagers on this game backing Tom Brady and his Patriots, the spread is remaining alarmingly low for a New England squad that beat the Ravens, 27-21, when the two teams met early this season.

What that leaves us with is the public backing Bill Belichick’s squad while the books continue to make them easier to wager with the reduced line … those factors clearly indicate that the books are satisfied getting a steady stream of Patriots money. Rule number one in making money on point spreads is to avoid giving the books what they want.

In the second game of the day, the Green Bay Packers bring all the physical edges into University of Phoenix Stadium, and it would be easy to project that the Cardinals run from Wild Card Weekend to Super Bowl participant a year ago is now headed to one and done.

But, while the Packers are the better team, this game has evolved over the week into the Cardinals being the better bet.

Here is why.

The Cardinals are playing a second straight game at home against the same opponent after getting blown out last week. Surprisingly, both winning teams that played yesterday also won a week ago to close out the regular season. Yet, while the Bengals lost a week ago on the road to the Jets, and the Cowboys beat the Eagles twice in a row at Cowboys Stadium, the Cardinals lost a week ago on their home field and now get a second shot at the same opponent in front of their home fans.

That alone could offer the Cardinals the motivational spot to turn the tables on Green Bay … but the line move based on the heavy action on the Packers makes them an even higher percentage play.

What we have here is Aaron Rodgers making his first ever postseason start as a favorite on the road with a team that didn’t make the playoffs last year against the defending NFC Champions. The Cardinals may not advance to a second straight Super Bowl, but winning this Wild Card Game at home will at least keep those hopes alive.

Both of today’s Wild Card Games are now posted on this site with their Money Management Numbers