Both the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts have reason to win Super Bowl XLIV. After most spend any time analyzing this game they gravitate to the Peyton Manning side of the equation like bees to honey.
And why not?
We are watching the greatest quarterback to ever work his trade on the biggest stage the National Football League has to offer. He has been to one other Super Bowl, three years ago when he led Indianapolis to a 29-17 triumph over a Chicago offense that was greatly hindered by the horrible play of starting quarterback Rex Grossman. The result both brought the championship to Indiana and paid dividends for those willing to lay a spread even larger than the one the Colts are forced to give in their upcoming game against New Orleans.
Peyton Manning is worth backing all by himself, he gives the Colts a unique edge offensively, particularly when he has two weeks to study a team he has no doubt had an eye on all year long. There is reason to stop at Manning, and surrendering to not being able to back any team against the Colts and the League’s Most Valuable Player … particularly against a defense that appears vulnerable to Manning’s skills.
Yet, I can get past Manning, not because I don’t think he is the best prepared quarterback to ever bark out signals, but because he is not positioned for a blowout in Miami. And his opponent, a quarterback who takes a back seat to no one this season in moving his team and putting up points, Drew Brees, is poised with factors that consistently generate excellent performances.
Perhaps it is not so much that Manning is going to underachieve as much as it is the New Orleans Saints, and Drew Brees in particular, are poised for an effort that even dwarfs their current best hopes. In October, the New Orleans Saints beat the Miami Dolphins, and covered the point spread, with 22 unanswered fourth quarter points on the road against a good Dolphins defense.
A team wouldn’t do something like that if they weren’t going to win the Super Bowl.
Who a team is, what can be expected of a squad, is established over the course of the year and the Super Bowl can offer a final logical conclusion to a season of results. Talent with motivation is lethal, and one without the other often feeble. How the Colts and Saints will perform on February 7 is in perfect concert to how they have achieved over the course of the year … and the set of circumstances coming in that will dictate what team hoists the Vince Lombard Trophy in South Florida.
This is where it gets difficult, because it would be great to have both the right pick and Peyton Manning, but, when they are on opposite sides, one must choose the wagering proposition over any single athlete.
Who wins a game is not always dictated by who has the better talent, otherwise the Saints wouldn’t be in Miami today. Last week, in New Orleans, the better team was the Minnesota Vikings. The Saints were in a trap, favored over a team that was both statistically better by a wide margin on the defensive side of the ball, and had the veteran leadership of Brett Favre in his career best season.
The Vikings showed on the field they had both the better running game and defense, but in terms of results, making the plays that needed to be made to win the game, the Saints were carrying trump.
No team in the NFL caused more turnovers this season than the New Orleans Saints … and they are primed motivationally to have a better game in the Super Bowl than they did against the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game.
Five, maybe six lost turnovers by a surprised Indianapolis squad is highly likely. It doesn’t have to be Manning throwing interceptions for the turnovers to mount for the Colts … special teams and fumbles are a combination the Saints have parlayed for points all season long.
The Saints defense allowed four touchdowns last week, and in Super Bowl XLIV they face an even more explosive attack than the one directed by Favre. Manning appears perfectly suited to slice up the Saints suspect secondary, but what he has over New Orleans in talent, the Saints make up for with motivation.
The quicker team in Super Bowl XLIV will be the New Orleans Saints. Why? Because they are the more challenged squad; the Colts are coming off a question answering win in the AFC Championship Game when they eliminated the team that ended their perfect season bid in December, the New York Jets.
If the Colts were going to win the Super Bowl they would have jumped on the Jets, led 17-0 early, and coasted home with a convincing win.
They didn’t.
They fell behind, and not until the Jets scored their 17th point of the second quarter to take an 11 point advantage on the scoreboard with only a couple minutes left in the fist half did New York get the Colts attention.
Turns out when Manning is primed to score, he will, and he rammed four passes right through the Jets top ranked defense to cut the halftime deficit to 17-13, and start a 24 point unanswered barrage that eliminated New York.
In other words, the Colts were in a perfect spot last week and required a comeback to get both the win and point spread cover, 30-17. The Saints were in a bad spot, against a more talented team, and always had an answer while blunting Minnesota opportunities with game changing takeaways.
That is typical for this Saints squad this year, and now they go from a bad spot they survived, to a great spot over the seemingly invincible Colts with the incomparable Manning and his arsenal of offensive weapons. But, the booster rocket for those weapons does not belong to the Colts in this year’s Super Bowl; it is squarely marching with the Saints.
Qoxhi Picks: New Orleans Saints (+5½) over Indianapolis Colts
