The first week after the combatants’ for Super Bowl XLIV were determined the news was all about Peyton Manning … leading most people to back Indianapolis and lay the less than touchdown point spread.

That all changed last Tuesday, when the highlight of the day dedicated to the media spotlighted the Colts best defensive lineman with an ankle that looked more ominous than any reports had indicated earlier. Dwight Freeney was the attention getter at Tuesday’s press gatherings as he limped from venue to venue with flip-flop footwear that clearly indicated something that appeared to be severe enough to at least hamper, if not eliminate, his play today in South Florida.

The Manning story brought the books mostly Colts money, while the injury to Indianapolis’ leading sacker saw the bettors step in on New Orleans. It would appear that a lot of Saints money was waiting for the line to go to plus 6½, the opening number had already been pushed up a point-and-one-half to 5½ and some 6 point lines were available last Monday.

Then the press tour of Freeney’s ugly ankle, which prompted a spike in public action for the Saints plus the points and forced the books to quickly drop the line to an even 5-points, less in some spots. Those investors waiting for the best line on the Saints quickly abandoned their hopes for a big spread and locked in the plus 5-points before it dropped any further.

This morning, the line has inched back up to where a closing line of 5½ points appears likely. That is an automatic half-point buy, moving the underdog play from the unlikely possibility of the game landing with a five point margin, to 6-points, the third most common differential on a National Football League game.

From the start, with all due respect to Brett Favre, the two quarterbacks squaring off at Sun Life Stadium today are the best football has to offer this season. Manning won an unprecedented fourth Most Valuable Player Award, and Drew Brees has had a career year while leading the Saints to a franchise record 13 straight wins to open the 2009 campaign.

The Colts support Manning with both excellent pass protection and a defense that has team speed faster than most offenses they defend.

The Saints support Brees by the defense consistently serving up excellent field position through turnovers, which they cash for points at a higher rate than any other team in the NFL.

Either team can win, and the prospect of one team running away from the other seems improbable. But, most think, if one did run away from the other it would be Manning leading the Colts on a barrage of points against the vulnerable Saints defense. But, I suggest the Saints defense is perfectly poised to cause more turnovers than the Colts have suffered in any recent game.

Burst of points on the scoreboard more often come from multiple turnovers turned into quick scores. What we have in South Florida today is a team that has shown the ability to jar the ball loose from their opponents, and perfectly motivated to do it in a big way.

Qoxhi Picks: New Orleans Saints (+5) over Indianapolis Colts