The pendulum of public opinion on whom the St. Louis Rams should select with the first pick in the National Football League Draft has swung dramatically from one of the two prized defensive tackles; Ndamukong Suh from Nebraska and Gerald McCoy of Oklahoma, to the man that could develop into a top franchise quarterback, the Sooners’ Sam Bradford.

The talented Bradford would have likely been the top pick in last year’s draft, but stayed at Oklahoma and suffered an opening game shoulder injury in a loss to Brigham Young University. Five weeks later, Bradford tried to comeback after rehabbing his left, non-throwing, shoulder, but was out of action for the season when the first hit the shoulder took ended his brief comeback attempt. Despite being injured in his final college season, the Rams currently appear poised to make Bradford the top pick in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Yet, just as it was a ninety-percent probability that St. Louis was going to add talent to their imposing defensive line before the draft combine, we may find the Rams trading the top pick while deciding not to put their franchise in the hands of a young quarterback that enters his pro career with health concerns. Once the Rams turned away from the top two defensive linemen prospects, both men worthy of the top pick, and the Bradford injured shoulder raises questions in Rams meetings, that combination coupled with some teams purposing enticing trade offers for the top pick in the draft that could include money, players and draft selections, I think the Rams will back themselves into a trade.

My guess is St. Louis will find a team offering too much to turn down, and sell it to their fans as a move to fill more needs on a much maligned Rams squad. The Rams certainly do have a lot of needs to fill on both sides of the ball. Their defense allowed 27 points a game in 2009, second worst in the NFL, and their offense was the worst, averaging only 11 points per outing.

It all added up to a 1-15 mark last season and the first pick in the draft.

According to my charts, the Rams would be best served by selecting Suh out of Nebraska, and build a franchise around the most dominate defensive front in football. The Rams defensive line includes two players the Rams have spent first round draft selections on in recent years, Chris Long in 2008 and Adam Carricker in 2007. If they added Suh or McCoy to that front the Rams could emerge with the best defensive line in pro football … which would offer them a place to build from in developing a championship team.

But, if the Rams keep the pick and spend it on Bradford, they are now putting an inexperienced rookie quarterback behind their offensive line … which is a little like leaving a popsicle in the sun. Yes, hot days and popsicles go together, but you need to be able to enjoy the Popsicle before it melts. Franchise quarterbacks are a necessary ingredient in a championship team, but a talented quarterback without a supporting cast is a certain to fail as, well, an unattended Popsicle in the sun.

If the Rams don’t end up with Bradford with their first pick, either because they trade the pick or more wisely take one of the defensive linemen, where do they find their team’s quarterback? Is there a formula? 

For as many top picks in the draft success stories, which include both Manning brothers, Peyton and Eli, there are a number of examples of top QB choices that ended in failure. And, perhaps the best two quarterbacks of the past quarter century, Joe Montana and Tom Brady, were third and sixth round selections respectively.

Jeff George, Ryan Leaf and Rick Mirer were all early picks, but none led a team to the playoffs. Ben Roethlisberger was the third quarterback taken in the 2004 draft, eleventh overall, and he has two Super Bowl rings. The two players he was drafted after that season have also enjoyed NFL success; Eli Manning was the first pick, and Philip Rivers was selected by the New York Giants with the fourth pick in a predetermined maneuver that would send Rivers to the San Diego Chargers for Manning.

Now, because I had an opportunity to work for one of the best talent men in NFL history, Ron Wolf, who was with the Raiders when we met in 1973 and later led the Green Bay Packers to a Super Bowl Championship, I know that the draft can be a challenging proposition. Writers, reporters and the guys wearing the jerseys in the audience at the draft in New York will all have opinions that they think trumps the knowledge of their favorite team.

This is the group that booed when the Philadelphia Eagles took Donovan McNabb, and couldn’t believe that the Jets passed on Matt Leinart in 2006 to make D’Brickashaw Ferguson their first pick with the fourth selection in the draft. That Eagles selection worked out pretty good, and taking the less “sexy” pick of an offensive lineman over a quarterback was one of the reasons the Jets advanced to the postseason last year with arguably the best offensive line in football.

I recall sitting with Wolf, John Madden and Al Davis in the Raiders drafting room after the 1974 draft, and this extraordinary brain trust studying the board that had every pick teams had taken over the first day of selections. They were debating who did the best … and the real answers were revealed in the years to come when the Steelers Lynn Swann, Jack Lambert and Mike Webster, all draft picks in 1974, guided Pittsburgh to Super Bowl wins. As did the Raiders first three selections that year, tackle Henry Lawrence, tightend Dave Casper and runningback Mark van Eeghen.

It will be the same this year; the reporters will think they know whom their teams should select and criticize or applaud their choices, the group in the viewing area at the draft will ooh and ahh as players are taken, and the Rams hold the key to the first pick in the draft. How it will turn out will be decided in the years to come … but, from where I sit, the Rams taking Bradford would be a huge mistake when the possibility of solidifying a defensive front is available.

Time will tell.