For the first 88 years of National Football League play the combination of a first-year head coach and rookie quarterback was a sure formula for failure. Yet, results over the past two seasons have produced a trio of teams advancing to the playoffs with NFL inexperience both on the sideline and behind center.

Two years ago, a pair of first-year head coaches led their teams to the playoffs with quarterbacks that were playing in college the season before. In Atlanta, the Falcons missteps prior to their 2008 breakout season, included a franchise quarterback getting barred from the league while doing prison time for mistreatment of animals, and a head coach that asked for team unity the same week he abandoned the squad before the 2007 NFL regular season was complete. By name, that is one time great National Football League attraction Michael Vick, and Arkansas Razorback Head Football Coach Bobby Petrino.

Replace those thuds with the bright quarterback play of Matt Ryan and the unifying and intelligent coaching of Mike Smith, and the Falcons parlayed the unlikely scenario of a rookie quarterback and first year NFL head coach into a first place NFC West Division finish in 2008. Team owner Arthur Blank turned the page on a few years of team turmoil into one of the more compelling and captivating story lines of the season. Atlanta opened the postseason in Wild Card Weekend at Arizona, and were a road favorite over a Cardinals team that would go on to represent the National Football Conference in Super Bowl XLIII.

A rookie quarterback leading his team to the playoffs with a first-year head coach was matched by Baltimore in 2008.  John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco teamed to guide a Ravens squad to an 11-5 regular season mark and an AFC Wild Card berth. The first-year head coach and rookie quarterback out of Delaware followed up their impressive regular season accomplishments with success in the playoffs. The Ravens beat the Miami Dolphins in Florida during Wild Card Weekend, and followed that win with a triumph over the Tennessee Titans the following week at LP Field.

Flacco had the advantage of running an offense on a team with a great defense. The Baltimore Ravens had relied on defense to turn games in their favor even before they won Super Bowl XXXV to conclude the 2000 season. Flacco’s early season game plan in his rookie year was to direct an offense that did not lose the game, but his accurate passing was critical in propelling the Ravens all the way to the AFC Championship Game against the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

Last season, another first-year head coach led his team to the playoffs with a rookie quarterback running the offense. This time, it was in New York, where first-year Head Coach Rex Ryan led the Jets to the postseason behind rookie QB Mark Sanchez and, like the Ravens the prior year, won a pair of road playoff games to earn a chance to participate in a game that decided one of the Super Bowl participants.  The Jets did no better in last year’s AFC Championship Game against the Colts than the Ravens had the prior season in Pittsburgh. Peyton Manning and the Colts beat the Jets, 30-17, and the Steelers beat the Ravens, 23-14.

The Jets rookie signal caller had been a starter for only one season in college at the University of Southern California.  The Jets selected Sanchez with the fifth pick in the first round. In his rookie season, Sanchez led a New York offense that ranked number one in football in rushing yards per attempt, and benefited from a defense that saw New York ranked best in stopping both the run and pass.

What we can learn from these three recent success stories on teams combining a rookie quarterback with a head coach working his initial NFL campaign, is that their success is predicated on having a strong defense to support their often conservative offenses. For this reason, you can understand why a rookie in Detroit can play as well as the three that led their teams to the playoffs, but a porous defense is not going to allow Mathew Stafford to lead the Lions into the postseason. This year, Sam Bradford will get an opportunity in St. Louis, and his success in the win/loss column will be as much pinned to the Rams defense as his play on the field.

When teams put together NFL campaigns that exceed all expectations, just as the Falcons, Ravens and Jets did over the past couple seasons, and add to that list the 2008 Miami Dolphins, who bounced off a 1-15 won/loss record in 2007 to a home playoff game the very next season, they seldom have a better won/loss record the year after their breakthrough season. In some cases, and I suggest this one will apply to the Jets this season, the expectation versus motivation table gets so far out of whack that a collapse is almost inevitable.

The Jets are going down because last year they had all the stats, on both sides of the ball in regards to the rush, and tops in defense against the pass. Now, the Jets are expected to improve their passing game because Sanchez has had a season to learn the NFL game.

Big problem.

What drove the Jets success last season was uncertainty, and it inspired them all the way to the best statistical team in football. But, in the year they compiled the best stats in football, they did not win their division. In fact, the Jets were only 7-7 with their postseason hopes on life-support before they closed out the campaign against two teams that had nothing to play for, beating a Colts and Bengals squad that played backups against Jets starters. Their 9-7 mark turned out to be good enough to earn a Wild Card berth, and they parlayed their postseason opportunity into a pair of road wins against the Cincinnati Bengals and San Diego Chargers. Defeating the Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium to end San Diego’s 11 game winning streak.

Do you get the picture here?

The Jets built last year’s success on the psyche of needing to overcome … now they are the talk of the town and far ahead of both the New York Giants and New England Patriots in east coast preseason buzz. That sense of confidence is fools gold … and they are headed into a year in which both coach and quarterback are positioned for colossal sophomore slumps.

Scratch the Jets from Super Bowl possibilities, and when you can buy an “under” on their season win total … take it.

NEXT WEEK: Primed Patriots