There was a time in the National Football League when teams that lost their conference championship game the prior season were prime candidates to advance to the Super Bowl. It was a time when teams built from the ground up, got to a certain level, maintained it for a period, and fell back to the pack.

Today, teams leap from cellars and advance to the playoffs from one year to the next. While more player movement through free agency is one factor for dramatic shifts in won/loss results, another is the impatience of most franchises. Rookie quarterbacks are expected to step right off the college stage and excel in the NFL … and, by gosh, more and more of them are succeeding.

Three rookie QB’s have guided struggling teams from the prior year to the playoffs over the past two seasons. In 2007, the Atlanta Falcons compiled a 4-12 campaign that included the departure of their first-year head coach before his initial season with the team was complete; Bobby Petrino called it a career in Atlanta 13 games into the 17 week regular season. With their fourth head coach in three years, Mike Smith stepped in along with rookie quarterback Matt Ryan to spearhead an impressive turnaround that resulted in an 11-5 regular season and a 2008 NFC Wild Card playoff berth.

The Baltimore Ravens had a down year in 2007, and fired longtime head coach Brian Billick after they finished in the cellar of the AFC North Division with a 5-11 season record. Billick’s replacement, John Harbaugh, chose rookie Joe Flacco to lead the Ravens offense, and Baltimore earned a playoff spot based on 11 regular season wins, and picked up two postseason victories at Miami and Tennessee before being eliminated by eventual Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship Game.

Last year, the New York Jets went from the experience of veteran Brett Favre running their offense in 2008, to a rookie who started only one season for his college team; Mark Sanchez of the University of Southern California. The one-year experiment with Favre in New York started strong, as the Jets won eight of their first 11 games.  But, after they upset the Titans in Tennessee, pinning Jeff Fisher’s squad with their first loss of the season, New York’s fortunes landed on losses in four of the season’s final five games including a playoff erasing effort at home against the Miami Dolphins to conclude Favre’s career in the Big Apple.

In comes Sanchez, with first year head coach Rex Ryan, and New York excels statistically at the top of the league in every category except passing offense. Still, Sanchez engineered the Jets offense with minimal negative plays and middle of the league passing numbers while guiding the Jets to a Wild Card playoff date. The Jets took advantage of their postseason opportunity by beating both the Cincinnati Bengals and San Diego Chargers on their home fields, before losing to the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game.

No team in history had a bigger turnaround in results from one season to the next than did the 2007 and 2008 Miami Dolphins. The organization that basks in the glory of being the only undefeated 17-0 Super Bowl Champion, a feat accomplished in 1972, narrowly escaped losing all 16 regular season games in 2007.  The only Dolphins win three seasons ago was an overtime home trumph over Baltimore in Week 15.

After their 1-15 campaign the Dolphins leapfrogged the entire AFC East in 2008, winning their division with an 11-5 mark. More evidence that dramatic team shifts are becoming more common in professional football.

While poor seasons the year before do not preclude the possibility of a breakthrough winning campaign for a team, the prospects of coming into the season with the knowledge you have one of the best teams in football can also feed success. A team good enough to advance to their conference championship game the prior season has a claim to stake on being a Super Bowl contender the following year.

Many feel there is a prime candidate to follow the NFC pattern of the mid 80’s when in consecutive years the San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears, New York Giants and Washington Redskins all lost their conference championship games the year prior to winning the Super Bowl. Last year, the Minnesota Vikings lost the NFC Championship Game to eventual Super Bowl Champion New Orleans, and Minnesota was arguably the better team on the field before falling to the Saints in overtime.

The Vikings have a defensive front that stops the run and gets after the passer, and an offense spearheaded by one of the top runners in the game, a breakaway threat at wide receiver, and the most battle tested quarterback in football. Any preseason assessment of the Vikings includes the expected return of Brett Favre, which seems a high probability based on his off season medical procedure done in time to make him available for training camp. Which, in all likelihood, Favre will arrive at sometime after his teammates.

From a physical standpoint, and the mental picture most have of the Vikings current franchise, is the image of Jared Allen harassing an overmatched opposing offense, and the Vikings attack moving the ball on the ground with Adrian Peterson or through the air with spirals thrown by Favre to a wide open and fleet footed Percy Harvin.  It is an easy image to call to mind.

That mental picture is the enemy of the Vikings this offseason.

Last year, entering the preseason before winning the NFC North Division, the Vikings were questioning their receiving corps and not sure Tarvaris Jackson was the answer at quarterback. Then Harvin emerged as a top flight receiver in his rookie year, and Favre had a career season in coming out of retirement to lead Minnesotato the NFC Championship Game.

The stuff that motivates a team towards excellence was present for the Vikings last year when they had more questions than answers. Now, they think Favre will return and match stats that were the best of his career … not likely.

They think they have their wide receiver in Percy Harvin, but expecting the second-year player to have a great season if Favre does not is more wishful thinking than solid thought.

They think they have the best runner in football, but Peterson was not as explosive down the stretch last year after three years of absorbing hits by NFL defenders with his straight-up running style … and he fumbles. Peterson had six of his fumbles result in lost possessions during the regular season in 2009, and twice coughed the ball up in the Vikings season ending loss in New Orleans … although to his credit, Minnesota recovered both those fumbles in the Superdome including one Perterson hustled to get back himself.

On defense, the Vikings strength is that hard-charging front line, but, if they don’t get pressure on the quarterback, Minnesota’s defensive backfield is vulnerable. In other words, even the Vikings physical strengths this season come with areas of concerns … which would be fine if those concerns were not masked by overconfidence which dictates Minnesota liabilities more likely to emerge than their team talent.

The past two weeks we have previewed the Super Bowl prospects of a pair of longtime NFL powers who are facing completely different motivational situations this season. The New England Patriots are highly motivated but have a question of talent. The Vikings are very talented but have a major liability in being properly prepared with a challenging team chemistry issue.

From where I sit, the motivational factor keeps the Patriots with a flickering Super Bowl chance, but eliminates the Vikings like a wet army blanket thrown on top of a burning match extinguishes its flame.

While the Vikings would like to think that last year’s loss in the NFC Championship Game is a stepping stone to the Super Bowl this season … in fact, that pattern in the NFL is as out-of-date as leisure suits and discos.

NEXT WEEK: RETOOLED REDSKINS