Successful coaches that lead their teams to Super Bowl titles almost always accomplish that goal within the first six years of being with their team.
Statistically, only five coaches in NFL history have won their first Super Bowl with a team after their sixth year on the job, and four of the five occurred before 1977. Bill Cowher, who led the Pittsburgh Steelers to a win in Super Bowl XL, holds the record for consecutive years with a team before winning his first Super Bowl. Cowher was in his 14th season with Pittsburgh when he collected his only Super Bowl Trophy to complete the 2002 season. His predecessor in Pittsburgh, Chuck Noll, was hired in 1969 and won his first of four Super Bowls in his sixth season on the job, 1974.
Tom Landry built the Dallas Cowboys from the ground up, losing every game in 1960 and not earning a winning record until the team’s seventh season in the league. But, by that time, Landry had turned the Cowboys into a power that would soon be known as America’s Team, an organization that strung 20 consecutive winning seasons together and picked up Super Bowl titles in 1971 and 1977, Landry’s 12th and 18th campaigns. Landry was removed as head coach after a third straight losing season in 1988, a 3-13 meltdown that saw the Cowboys fall to the cellar of the NFC Eastern Division.
Landry’s successor, Jimmy Johnson, won only one game in his first season, but picked up six wins in his second year and had the Cowboys in the playoffs in his third season. In year four and five, Johnson led the Cowboys to back-to-back Super Bowl wins. In Pittsburgh, Cowher retired after his 15th campaign, and his successor, Mike Tomlin, guided Pittsburgh to a win in Super Bowl XLIII, his second season as the Steelers head coach.
Weeb Ewbank was on the Jets sideline for a 6th year when his team earned the American Football League their first Super Bowl championship in the game Joe Namath guaranteed a New York win and delivered. John Madden had led the Oakland Raiders to five championship game losses before he broke through in 1976, defeating the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl XI in his eighth year as the Raiders head coach.
Last season, Sean Payton was in his fourth year on the Saints sideline, a prime time for coaching success. Even the legendary Don Shula won his only two Super Bowl titles in his third and fourth seasons with the Miami Dolphins.
With only Bill Cowher interrupting the first six years rule over the past 33 seasons, there are six current coaches that may be long-shots to win a Super Bowl based on not accomplishing that goal in any of their first six seasons. In Cincinnati, Marvin Lewis is beginning his eighth season as the Bengals head coach. Jack Del Rio was hired the same year as Lewis, and he will be on the Jaguars sideline for an eighth year while still looking for his first Super Bowl berth.
The remaining head coaches with at least seven years on the job without winning a Super Bowl are Jeff Fisher, Andy Reid, Lovie Smith and John Fox. What that quartet has in common is that they all led their teams to a Super Bowl, and lost the game. Fisher, who is beginning his 17th campaign on the Titans sidelines, lost Super Bowl XXXIX to the St. Louis Rams. Reid, now in his 12th year with Philadelphia, guided the Eagles to the title game in 2004 and lost to the New England Patriots. John Fox and his Carolina Panthers were on the losing end of a score against New England in Super Bowl XXXVIII, and Fox is now in his ninth season as the Panthers head coach. In only his second season at the helm of the Bears, Lovie Smith guided Chicago to a Super Bowl matchup with the Indianapolis Colts, a game that ended with his Bears on the wrong side of a 29-17 score. Smith is now in his seventh year as the Bears head coach.
If you think Marvin Lewis of the Cincinnati Bengals, Jack Del Rio of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Jeff Fisher of the Tennessee Titans, John Fox of the Carolina Panthers, Lovie Smith of the Chicago Bears or Andy Reid of the Philadelphia Eagles is poised for a Super Bowl win in 2010 … you are starting against the percentage play.
The coach who has his name on the Super Bowl Trophy, Vince Lombardi, won the first two Championship Games between the National Football League and American Football League before the game was even referred to as the Super Bowl. Lombardi’s Packers beat the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders in games now classified as Super Bowl I and II. Those two triumphs occurred in Lombardi’s final two seasons in Green Bay, his eighth and ninth, and he had also guided the Packers to the NFL Championship in his third, fourth and seventh years while working the sidelines at Lambeau Field.
With the knowledge that coaches serving their second to fifth years account for more than half of all first-time winning Super Bowl coaches, you might deduce that reviewing coaches in that stage of their career could well illuminate what team is likely to pick up the Vince Lombardi Trophy next February at the conclusion of Super Bowl XLV.
Using this factor, what coaches are at the prime of their career and have teams heading in a solid direction? There are eight. John Harbaugh has led the Baltimore Ravens to the playoffs in each of his first two campaigns, and enters his third year in a very positive position. The Arizona Cardinals have been to a Super Bowl and advanced to the postseason the past two seasons under Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt, who has transformed the long suffering Arizona franchise into a division favorite. Wade Phillips begins his fourth season in Dallas and has the pieces to win it all. Mike Smith has worked magic in Atlanta during his first two years with the Falcons, and has a team poised for greatness as he enters his third season for team owner Arthur Blank.
Tony Sparano took over a 1-15 squad three years ago in Miami, and has them in a prime position to win the AFC East after a postseason berth two years ago and a quarterback shift last season. Norv Tuner was hired by the San Diego Chargers in 2007, and has three AFC West titles leading into his fourth campaign. Two coaches enter their fifth seasons in the NFC North Division, and both have enough weapons to promote a chance to win it all. In Green Bay, Mike McCarthy kept order during the transition from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers, and has the Packers perfectly positioned for a championship run. Brad Childress also begins his fifth year as head coach in Minnesota, and a trip to the NFC Championship Game last season is evidence the Vikings could be a force to reckon with before the 2010 title is decided.
Of this group with coaches in the prime of their careers, one AFC team inches ahead of the others. The Ravens had a breakthrough season two years ago, transforming a losing mark in 2007 to a trip to the AFC Championship Game in 2008 with both a rookie quarterback and first year head coach. Last year, the team was good enough to make the playoffs, but as is common for a young quarterback on the heels of success that exceeded all preseason expectations, Joe Flacco was not as effective in 2009 as he was in his rookie season.
His mistakes, turnovers in the redzone, cost two regular season games against quality opponents, the Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers. In the postseason Flacco was inept at Indianapolis after opening the postseason while his team’s defense keyed a victory over the Patriots in Foxborough, the first home playoff loss for Tom Brady in his pro career.
The Ravens were able to bounce off a breakthrough campaign with another postseason berth … a huge accomplishment. Now, they have the motivational spike of a dismal performance and loss to the Colts in the postseason, and a quarterback who has all the tools, and now experience, for a huge season in 2010. Add to these factors that the leader on defense, the man most responsible for the Ravens winning their first Super Bowl ten years ago, is now in the twilight of his career and looking to not miss this moment.
Ray Lewis on a mission is lethal on the defensive side of the ball, and the off-season acquisition of receiver Anquan Boldin gives Flacco another weapon in what lines up to be his best pro year. Put this set of talent in the capable hands of Head Coach John Harbaugh in the prime of his career and you get … well you get the team that is right now the best choice to win the AFC … the Baltimore Ravens.
NEXT WEEK: BEARS BITE
