It seems that most of the people I talk to are more interested in dark horse teams that have a chance to rise from recent failure, than if the New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings or Dallas Cowboys are going to be as good as advertised?

Sometimes a team that has a solid pedigree is dispelled for all the wrong reasons based on one bad year. Want a surprise winner? Well, I’d give you the Carolina Panthers if they could be considered a surprise winner, because this is a team that just two years ago earned as many wins as any team in the National Football Conference with a 12-4 mark.

Last season, the Panthers stumbled out of the gate as the scoring tosses from their quarterback, Jack Delhomme, consistently were in opponent hands. Five interceptions in an opening Sunday loss to the visiting Philadelphia Eagles was on the heels of a defeat that abruptly brought to a close the Panthers 2008 campaign, a mistake driven double-digit loss to the eventual NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals.

When a team is a double-digit home favorite in the Divisional Playoff round, and loses by double-digits, something is terribly, terribly wrong. In this case, it was Delhomme. He cashed a regular season best conference record, wins in eight of the Panthers final ten regular season games, and a 7-0 first quarter lead over Arizona to a 33-13 home loss.

How bad was Delhomme in that playoff game?

His quarterback ranking was lower than the average age of an eighth grader.

Delhomme had been a staple during the best years John Fox has coached in Carolina. Fox and Delhomme parlayed a late season run and good fortune in the playoffs to earn a spot in Super Bowl XXXVIII. A game played in Jacksonville and won by the New England Patriots, 32-29.

They entered the 2008 playoffs the favorite to with the Super Bowl by many experts, and their early unexpected exit from the postseason competition should have given the team new motivation to succeed again last year. But, In 13 starts Delhomme completed only eight touchdowns against 18 interceptions, hardly a ratio that is going to give Carolina a chance to win even with a solid defense and punishing offensive ground attack.

Enter Matt Moore for the final five weeks of the season, and Carolina gains four wins including three straight triumphs to close out their campaign over the Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants and eventual Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints. The end of the season winning streak saw the third-year pro out of Oregon State complete seven touchdown passes without surrendering an interception.

Now, before we jump to thinking Moore is the greatest quarterback since Joe Montana, there is an asterisk on each of those Panthers wins. The victory over the Vikings was impressive and against a team that still needed to win to improve their playoff position. But the Panthers were fortunate to catch the Vikings arguing on the sidelines and facing a meltdown of their own … one that would spill into the next Monday night for Minnesota when they lost to the Bears in Chicago.

Horrible spot for the Giants, great spot for Carolina to pick up their second win in a row with Moore behind center. Moore and his underdog Panthers won straight-up, 41-9.

In their season finale, the Panthers did play a team wearing the same color uniforms as the squad that went on to win the Super Bowl last year, but they didn’t match up against the New Orleans players that earned the best record in the NFC and the victory in Super Bowl XLIV. The Saints had nothing to play for when they met the Panthers last January, having already clinched home field advantage for the NFC playoffs. When the game meant something to both teams, the Saints prevailed by ten points eight weeks earlier. But now, that the Saints were going to rest their starters, the Panthers were 10 point favorites over New Orleans and won both the game and bet with a 23-10 triumph.

So, do we give credit to Moore as the second coming, or should we be cautioned that he succeeded in his three starts to close out the 2009 season because of extenuating circumstances? Those wins could prove to be crippling to his motivation in preparing for this season. The last thing a team on the verge to succeed needs is unwarranted confidence.

It would be much better if the Panthers focused on their long Super Bowl odds, loss of defensive lineman Julius Peppers, and questions that should accompany the starting of a new quarterback in the wake of the off-season departure of Delhomme. The longtime Carolina starter has recently been moved to the number one position on the Cleveland Browns depth chart.

What is the difference between leading a team to four wins without the pressure of a postseason berth being on the line, and the expectations that go with opening training camp as the designated starter for John Fox’s ninth season as head coach … and perhaps his last if he doesn’t win?

If only I could be sure those three end of the season wins didn’t inflate the Panthers expectations beyond their talent, I could wholeheartedly back their chances to succeed well beyond their current 40 to 1 odds to win Super Bowl XLV, and 20 to 1 odds to win their Conference.

Without holding those three wins against Carolina, what they enter the 2010 season with is an explosive running game spearheaded by DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart while anchored by arguably the best offensive line in football. Last year, Williams and Stewart ran through the holes created by their blockers to become the first tandem in NFL History to each rush for more than 1100 yards in the same season.

On defense, the Panthers may well have the best middle linebacker in the game with Jon Beason, who enters his fourth season since being the Panthers first pick in the 2007 NFL Draft. He is a quality rock to build a top defensive unit around.

Gone from the Carolina front line is Juillus Peppers, who had been among the league leaders in defensive accomplishments since joining Carolina as their top draft pick in 2002. As good as Peppers was, he played in spurts. He needed to be kept happy, and could often take away from team goals with his personal agenda. Now that he is gone, I think it can be argued that for at least the first season of his absence this unit will be particularly spiked for effort in an attempt to overcome his loss.

What that generates is a Panthers team that could be perfectly pitched with a couple important ingredients; motivation to overcome the loss of a key player, and an offense that can only be better without Delhomme. Early returns on Moore are solid, and he has the benefit of a punishing ground game that operates behind a dominant offensive line.

The odds in Vegas on the Panthers chances to win the Super Bowl are made longer based on the challenge they must first overcome against the defending Super Bowl Champion Saints and the highly regarded Atlanta Falcons in the formidable NFC South Division. The known challenge these two division foes pose the Panthers is in direct relation to how much motivation Carolina picks up in the need to overcome, driven by the greatest motivator of all … fear of failure.

Three teams are listed at 40-1 odds to win the Super Bowl; in addition to Carolina, the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks are also 40-1 to win Super Bowl XLV and 20 to 1 to win their conferences. The Seahawks odds are lower than they should be because they are playing out of a perceived weak division, the NFC West which consists of Arizona, San Francisco, St. Louis and Seattle.

The Seahawks, in Pete Carol’s first season in the Northwest have no chance to be anything but average or below, but the Panthers and Texans both are perched for unusually good seasons based on entirely different factors. The Panthers for the reasons illuminated in this column, and the Texans for the ones revealed in the next Headline Play.

NEXT WEEK: TEXANS TAKE TEXAS