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Picks You Don't Want ... That Win

A client called from Florida to get the first week of the preseason picks and I told him Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns.

“That’s sounds like a horrible game,” he replied.

“No,” I said, “that’s not the game, those are our picks. Jacksonville plus three over the New England Patriots and Cleveland giving three points over the New Orleans Saints.”

His response was laughter and confidence, he’s not a new client, and recognizes that where value lies in the point spread market is not where most people are looking. That day, it was with two teams that have had all sorts of trouble winning in the regular season in recent years but were perfectly poised to down a couple of more respected squads in opening preseason contests.

They did.

The Jaguars and Browns were just the first two winners of a preseason record that ended with eight wins, one loss and one push. And, like those first week picks, the games tabbed by the Qoxhi service are not those to which the public are naturally attracted.

I can only smile when a new client challenges the picks before the games are played often pointing out that he hates those choices, likes other games a lot more.

Of course clients like other games more, probably would have thought better of getting the Patriots and Saints instead of the Jaguars and Browns the first week of the preseason. But winners do not come from where the public congregates. Stats show that less than 2% of those that wager on football make money over the course of a season.

They are losing on the same games, and we make our clients money with consistent plays against conventional wisdom. And those selections win for two primary reasons. First, you get the benefit of an attractive point spread and second the players involved in the game have the same realizations that all of us have. It is that fear of failure that often drives an underdog to a special performance.

Take the season opener this year when the New England Patriots hosted the Kansas City Chiefs. Whether New England would or would not cover the nine point spread was open for debate, but the Patriots winning the game was questioned by a very few number of people. There was good reason to think New England would win the game, the defending Super Bowl Champions opening at home on Thursday night had an 11-1 straight-up mark and an impressive 8-2-2 point spread record.

The Patriots confidence was buoyed even further when Tom Brady took his squad on an opening touchdown drive and New England recovered a fumble on the Chiefs first offensive play from scrimmage. All the Chiefs were looking at after that fumble was the possibility of getting blown out in their opener … and New England’s confidence was more elevated than it was even before the game.

It is that kind of motivation, the edge that had Kansas City upset New England, that we have preyed on at Qoxhi Picks for nearly four decades. Those factors don’t show up in the offensive and defensive stats, but when they are used to identify point spread winners the results of our work do show up in bottom line profits.

We are open for business and ready to give you picks you don’t want … but selections that will make you money.