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Poised for Takeoff
By Dennis Ranahan

The team that wins Super Bowl XLV is not coming from nowhere, but from a set of factors that clearly dictate results based on the predetermined set of conditions entering the season. Talent is necessary, but to succeed skill and precision on the field needs to be complimented with a favorable motivational set of circumstances.

While the physical skill of all teams can be evaluated by what squads gain the most yards and are successful at preventing their opponents from doing the same, having those statistics culminate with a championship is determined as much by the chemistry of a team as it is by pure statistics.

Every team has a perceived expectation level, and while every squad in August will claim their goal is to win the Super Bowl, teams as weak as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Detroit Lions would consider the season a success if they won as many games as they lost, even if they fell short of the playoffs. On the other extreme, teams with a goal they consider realistic that includes a Super Bowl win, squads such as the Indianapolis Colts or Minnesota Vikings, would be disappointed without a win in the postseason. If they compiled more wins than losses in the regular season, but failed to qualify for a playoff berth, they would consider the season a failure.

Expectations versus talent and chemistry can be reduced to a mathematical equation, and when expectations are higher than talent dictates, failure is almost certain to follow. When talent is ahead of expectations, then a team that missed the playoffs the previous two seasons can be perfectly poised to win the Super Bowl.

The New Orleans Saints are a recent example. Expectations where high after their run to the NFC Championship Game in 2006, and those high hopes were met with a pair of seasons that did not produce a winning record. Last year, the Saints talent was improved over recent years, and the expectations dropped. 

For the New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl in 2009 they had to win more postseason games than all the previous Saints teams had combined to win since the formation of the franchise in 1967. In the forty-two year history of the New Orleans Saints they had won two postseason games. The Saints first postseason victory was earned in 2000 while Jim Haslett was head coach and New Orleans defeated the St. Louis Rams in an NFC Wild Card game. The second postseason win, over the Philadelphia Eagles in a 2006 Divisional Playoff Game, came at the Superdome by a 27-24 score … a game the home team was favored by 5½ points.

The Saints won the Super Bowl last year not because of what they had done in previous seasons, but based on where they were positioned to perform when talent and motivation were both weighed in charting their direction. And while the Saints won the Super Bowl over the Indianapolis Colts last season, they now carry higher expectations than even their extraordinary talent dictates.

LONG TERM PROFITS
Plus Super Bowl XLIV

“Well, you told me to bet on the Panthers in the Super Bowl, and that worked out, so I’ll take your service again this year,” said a satisfied customer before the 2004 season.

His comment sent chills down my spine.

For what we have to offer, for how we do business, for how we churn out consistent profits without risks beyond a client’s means and work to balance the right equation between risk versus return, to base buying or not buying the service on one selection seemed so shortsighted. Picking the Carolina Panthers plus the points in the Super Bowl five years ago was a very tough call, and a game that could have gone either way.

There are so many results, profits and evidence on which to judge the Qoxhi Picks service, to limit it to one game would be like buying a house because you like the crossing-guard who works around the corner from the residence.

It’s a nice thing to have, but you wouldn’t want to base your decision on purchasing real estate with that limited benefit; so many other more pertinent factors should be weighed to determine the wisdom of a home purchase.

A Super Bowl win is nice, but the value of a business relationship needs to be based on the bottom line success of the information over the course of a full season. In most years, many selections carry with them much more certain criteria favoring one side during the regular season or playoffs leading up to the Super Bowl … than the Super Bowl itself.

The hard-fought Carolina/New England battle in Super Bowl XXXVIII left fans of both sides exhausted from the emotional rollercoaster their teams put them on during the highly contested win by the Patriots, who were favored by a touchdown and won by a field goal, 32-29.

While the Super Bowl is a one and gun proposition, an NFL season is a mosaic of situations and opportunities that emerge as teams weave their paths through the rigors of an NFL season. Knowing when to move in, where to take positions and leverage for profits, is a process that has the greatest potential of generating long term gains.

Our expectations for an NFL regular season, equate it to shooting par on the golf course, is offering the financial tools and point spread selections that raises an opening account balance to 154% of season opening amounts. We shot the equivalent of one over par in 2009, missing our regular season goal by 9% but adding to bottom line profits with winning campaigns in both the preseason and the postseason leading up to Super Bowl XLIV.

In 2009, Qoxhi’s Basic Money Management strategy generated a 45% profit, an amount achieved by subscribers that adhered to the disciplines dictated by the on-line Account Manager. Preseason and postseason profits raised the season gains utilizing the Basic Money Management Strategy to 152% of opening amounts. For clients that adopted the more involved rigors necessary to properly manage the Percentage Play and Top Pick Aggressive methods, higher profits were accumulated.

Qoxhi profits should never be regarded as free money or a sure thing. Such thoughts live in the gambling paradigm; my job is to extract the investment value from an activity that preys on gambling instincts.

We are never going to break your book, because more people will be wagering against our plays and your book will be glad you won because it had exposure on the other side. Sometimes, when we lose, we get pounded. But, overall, we win more than half our games straight-up and turn another 16% profits on the wins we pick up on the spread while backing underdogs that lose on the scoreboard but win at the payout counter.

The 2009 NFL season was typical.

In the third week of regular season action we lost with the Cleveland Browns by a score of 34-3 to the Baltimore Ravens, but our three other underdog plays over the first month of the regular season won close once, won big once, and caught the winning side on the spread on the New York Giants opening day win over the Washington Redskins.

A Week Five setback was lopsided when the eventual AFC Champion Indianapolis Colts crushed the still winless Tennessee Titans as Jeff Fisher’s team lost a fifth straight game en route to an 0-6 season start. Qoxhi’s Week Six Top Pick win was the Oakland Raiders plus two touchdowns over the Philadelphia Eagles, and that straight-up victory was the first of eight straight Top Pick triumphs, which contributed to a 13-4 Top Pick mark for the 2009 regular season.

There are so many more reasons to bank with Qoxhi than what side they took on a single day, even if it was the Super Bowl. Consistent profits from the Qoxhi business model is based on a well conceived and executed method to generate gains from NFL results.

Fortunately, this year, we can both enjoy the biggest day of the NFL calendar and back a team that unlike the Panthers five years ago, or the New England Patriots the following season, is not a matchup with conflicting factors. This year, we have both the National Football League’s biggest stage and an attractive point spread investment proposition that promises to enhance the day’s enjoyment.

Green Bay Packers 11-4-1
Atlanta Falcons 11-5
San Francisco 49ers 10-4-2
Cleveland Browns 10-6
Indianapolis Colts 10-6
Minnesota Vikings 9-6-1
San Francisco 49ers 0
Chicago Bears 0
Cincinnati Bengals 0
Buffalo Bills 0
Denver Broncos 0
Cleveland Browns 0

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