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Super Picks
By Dennis Ranahan

Next January 23, the National Football League will determine which squads will square off in Super Bowl XLV when they stage the American and National Football Conference Championship Games. Between now and then, the regular and postseason action will see teams rise and fall based on injuries, mistakes, in-battles, team chemistry, breakthrough campaigns along with good and bad coaching decisions.

After all that, two teams will win their conference championship games and meet for the final leg of the Vince Lombardi Trophy hunt at Cowboys Stadium.

For months my staff has compiled player moves, stats, trends, significant historical patterns and coaching decisions that I have determined point to a pair of teams that will most likely survive the grueling NFL schedule and represent the AFC and NFC next February in Texas. That is not to say we won’t know a lot more after the opening week of NFL play, or the likelihood we are on the right track heading into the postseason.

Case in point, last year our preseason Super Bowl prediction was that the New Orleans Saints would beat the San Diego Chargers in Super Bowl XLIV. Yet, in the Divisional Playoff round, we cashed the win with the New York Jets plus the points over the Chargers, and the following week, in the NFC Championship Game, took the Minnesota Vikings plus the points over the Saints … which won the bet while getting four points in a game won in overtime on a field goal by the Saints.

In other words, our Super Bowl predications are submitted now, before the regular season kicks off on Thursday night, and then we go about the job of finding the best plays week-by-week. Yet, if you know where the season is headed, it is a lot easier mapping a successful route through the campaign.

We begin with the Indianapolis Colts, who lost to the Saints last February, and are again the favorite at Las Vegas books to win it all. While one historical trend is that the Super Bowl loser is likely to not only miss the Super Bowl the following year, but in recent years less than a 50/50 shot to even make the playoffs, may be a moot stat this year.

Recent Super Bowl losers like the Arizona Cardinals, Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks may be less likely to win a Super Bowl in the next season than the Colts.

See Now:
  Surprise NFC Squad
  Opening Day Upset
  Only Bill Cowher
Decisions, Decisions
Packers Thankful

The Oakland Raiders sent a first and fourth round selection to the Seattle Seahawks in April of 2005 to move up in the draft, and when their pick came up, I knew why they made the trade to get in front of the Green Bay Packers and Washington Redskins in the first round. In fact, I was so sure that when National Football League Commissioner Paul Tagliabue announced in New York that the Oakland Raiders were on the clock for their first round selection, I posted on the Qoxhi Picks site that the Raiders chose Aaron Rodgers.

What else could it be? Why else would they trade to get ahead of the Packers and Redskins, two teams also in the market for a quarterback?

“With the 23rd pick in the first round the Oakland Raiders select Fabian Washington, cornerback, University of Nebraska,” Tagliabue announced before adding, “The Green Bay Packers are on the clock.”

What?

While I was correcting my information on line, the Green Bay Packers quickly submitted Aaron Rodgers as their first pick, and minutes later, the Redskins selected Jason Campbell with their first round selection.

I wasn’t close to the Raiders operation on that day, but having been there in the past, I can pretty much imagine what happened. Oakland owner Al Davis puts the highest priority on cornerbacks in building a team, while the coach that was with the Raiders when I worked for them in the 1970’s, John Madden, put the offensive line number one on his list of building a winner. Davis is also known to assert his authority on draft day, interfere with weeks of preparation with a surprise pick he decides independent of his staff advisors.

I can imagine the Raiders personnel department recommending Rodgers, thinking that would be their choice, and then have Davis say, “Have you seen this kid from Nebraska?”

Boom, his choice is put in, and the Green Bay Packers haven’t stopped privately thanking him since.

Rodgers has given the Packers stability in the wake of the shadow cast by his predecessor, future Hall of Famer Brett Favre. Not since Steve Young filled the huge shoes of Joe Montana in San Francisco, has a man stepped in for a quarterback legend and maintained excellence at such a high level.

Consider how a pick, I suspect a moment when Davis blinked and caught his staff and the football world off-guard, has changed the course for a number of athletes and the direction of organizations.

If the Raiders would have chosen Rodgers, there likely never would have been the circus that was JaMarcus Russell, who the Raiders selected two years later with the first pick in the draft. If Russell would not have been in Oakland, then head coach Lane Kiffin would not have been forced to start him based on Davis’ demands. Perhaps that could have meant Kiffin had a successful run in Oakland and never recoiled to college where he accepted, and then after one season abandoned, the Tennessee Volunteers post for a move to the University of Southern California.

If Rodgers would not have gone to Green Bay, it is likely Jason Campbell would have … and his career most likely would have fallen on tough times in his attempt to follow in Favre’s footsteps. Instead, Campbell was acquired this year by the Raiders to replace an out-of-football Russell, and the one-time Redskins quarterback is now being described by Davis as the next Jim Plunkett, which is a little like saying Volkswagen is the next Bentley.

While the soap opera that is the Oakland Raiders plays out, the Green Bay Packers, behind Rodgers, are in a perfect spot to contend for Super Bowl XLV. Last season, the Packers played like a young team finding themselves, and even with dominating stats on both sides of the ball were bait for opponents in good motivational spots.

When Favre brought his new team up against his longtime home squad, the Minnesota Vikings twice handled Green Bay during the regular season. When the Packers were listed as a double-digit home favorite over a still suspect Cincinnati Bengals squad in second week action after an emotional opening win over their NFC North Division rival Chicago Bears, Green Bay came up short. In the middle of the season, after their second loss to Favre and the Vikings, and before a much anticipated contest against the Dallas Cowboys, the Packers fell flat on the road against one of the league’s weaklings, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

After that November loss in Florida, the Packers closed out their regular season with seven wins in eight weeks, including dominating triumphs over the Seattle Seahawks, 48-10 at Lambeau Field, and a road regular season finale victory over the Arizona Cardinals by a 33-7 margin.

Green Bay was also favored the following Sunday back in Arizona to open the postseason in a rematch against Ken Whisenhunt’s squad, and in his last victory as a pro, Kurt Warner led the Cardinals to a high scoring overtime triumph, 51-45.

What can we learn from these results?

That the Packers were good enough to win when they were supposed to in 2009, even against solid opposition such as the Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens and Arizona Cardinals. But, the Packers were immature as a squad, allowing circumstances to dictate results when either up against talented teams the likes of the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers, or when motivation favored inferior squads.

Yet, that experience, and their early exit from the postseason last January, will benefit Green Bay this year in both preparation for the season and when the campaign kicks off for the Packers at Lincoln Financial Field on opening Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles. If they have a better result in that game than they did in their preseason opener, a home loss to the Cleveland Browns, Green Bay could be the best the NFC has to offer this year.

In fact, even that loss to the Browns found Green Bay controlling most of the game.  Rodgers led his team back from a 14-0 early deficit while completing 12 of 13 passes and guiding the Packers on back-to-back touchdown drives before he surrendered the field to understudies.

Yep, the Packers are very pleased with the Raiders draft decision in 2005 that left Rodgers available for them, and this year that decision has Green Bay among the NFL elite and a viable Super Bowl choice.

San Francisco 49ers 0-0
Chicago Bears 0-0
Cincinnati Bengals 0-0
Buffalo Bills 0-0
Denver Broncos 0-0
Cleveland Browns 0-0
Green Bay Packers 99
New Orleans Saints 96
Indianapolis Colts 94
Atlanta Falcons 91
Dallas Cowboys 89
Minnesota Vikings 88

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