Now that the National Football League has gone into full partnership with the gambling world, they are running a television spot where Hall of Fame Quarterback Kurt Warner offers advice for people making bets, “Don’t wager more than you can lose.”

That line turns my stomach. What a negative point of view, akin to perhaps buying a new car and saying, “Buy one you can survive in after your crash.”

Now, I’m not suggesting that safety measures aren’t a good thing in automobiles, or betting within your budget isn’t a good idea. Still, you don’t buy the car anticipating an accident and you shouldn’t start a wagering season of National Football League action expecting to lose.

But, we did this year. It was our sixth losing regular season in 43 years of delivering selections to clients. In 2001, we introduced the Account Manager on-line that allows Qoxhi subscribers to pick one of five money management strategies and then punch in what they have as an opening account balance and allow this investment tool to dictate wager amounts on every Qoxhi selection.

Since introducing this tool 22 years ago, 2023 was only the third year the Basic Strategy did not show a profit over the course of the regular season. Most of the problems were in the first half of the campaign, a nine week period where the weekly Top Pick compiled a losing 3-5-1 mark against the point spread. Rated games other than Top Picks never improved the season returns and by season end the Basic Strategy showed a 47.5% loss.

Of the five strategies available on the account manager only Top Pick Exclusive showed a season long profit in 2023 and Qoxhi Top Picks have never had a losing season in 43 years. A 7-2 mark on the Top Picks over the second half of this season brought that strategy up to a 42.6% profit. Last season, that strategy more than doubled an opening account balance and the Basic Strategy generated a 57.7% profit. The other three strategies saw gains higher than the Basic Strategy not only last year, but in most seasons.

I never contend that this investment is a sure thing, but I am supremely confident that if I do my job and clients follow any of the strategies available online, they will show a profit by season end. Still, they play the games, and in 2023 it seemed that each safety, fumble, key injury or questionable call by the ref went against us. I also take responsibility for our selections not being as bright as in most seasons and trace that to our season opening projections for each team not being as sharp as in past years.

Our opening day Top Pick winner with the Rams plus the points over the Seattle Seahawks was the 16th consecutive winner we had delivered in the first four weeks of the prior five seasons. We expect to come out of the gate with a flurry of winners because while the public is still pinned to betting on last year’s results, our off-season work gives us an early edge.

This season, our preseason work on the teams was not as pinpoint accurate as in most years, and that showed in us losing the next three Top Picks after our 16 game winning streak was snapped.

This is where Money Management becomes most important. When we are winning week-in-and-week-out the only disappointment is that the account manager isn’t having us bet more on the winners. But when times go south, like they did in September and October this year, the account manager keeps us in the game to withstand the down periods and be in on the profits when the results turn favorable.

So, while I disagree with Warner’s request to not wager more than you can lose, I do subscribe to not wagering more than you can win. And that means, staying within a budget in both good times and the occasional down trends to be in the game when the results turn positive.

Like any organization dedicated to winning, an off-year heightens the attention to detail to make the following season better. The five seasons in which we didn’t show a profit in the past were all followed by highly successful campaigns the next season. We will work to continue that pattern in 2024.