Is “smart” money in play during a National Football League preseason?

I’m a believer in “smart” money. While only a small percentage of people wagering on NFL football generate season long profits … it is the same people each year that turn the numbers against the books and come away with profits.

I like to think of myself as directing my Qoxhi Picks clients to profits while aligning with “smart” money. I say with pride that four times I have had books stop taking my action in surrender to the fact that they didn’t want to do business with anyone that is a consistent winner.

There was a time when I first opened Qoxhi that following smart money was a lot easier. So much of the market was dominated by everyday gamblers that it was easy to see where the public money was going and what way the books were moving the line. If 70% of the public bets were on one side, and the books were making that side more attractive with the line move, backing the book moves was a consistent winner.

In the preseason, the general public would back teams that were regular season winners and be beaten when the weakest teams consistently won the wagers with attractive underdog lines. It is worth noting that only two teams in the last 40 years lost every regular season game. The Cleveland Browns in 2017 and the 2008 Detroit Lions. Know what those two teams also had in common along with losing every regular season game?

The 2017 Browns and 2008 Lions were also perfect in the preseason.

That’s right, the only two teams that lost every regular season game this century also swept their preseason schedule that same season.

So much for the Browns and Lions preseason success on the scoreboard in August leading to a successful NFL campaign.

On the other end of the scale, we have teams like the Indianapolis Colts during the Peyton Manning era. Manning and company were working on something other than outsourcing their opponents in August, and while they often had dismal results in the summer games, they were as ready to win in the regular season as any team in the league during Manning’s career.

Good teams utilize the preseason to prepare for the real games. They are utilizing the exhibition contests to evaluate what marginal players will make their regular season rosters and that requires playing a number of second-tier players to assist in the evaluations.

Bad teams look to win more often in the preseason to push ticket sales and give disheartened fans something to cheer about … even it is as hollow as winning a preseason game. I recall a game in the 1980’s, after the Green Bay Packers had long since dropped from the top of the football world and reduced to also-rans. In a game against the powerful Dallas Cowboys the Packers actually brought back their starting defense for the last drive of the game to preserve a narrow lead over the Dallas Cowboys.

The Packers first string defense against the Cowboys third string quarterback held the lead in August for a win, but who do you think went on to have a more successful regular season and cracked the playoff field?

Preseason comes down to coaching philosophy. Some coaches, even with good regular season teams, like to win in the preseason. Some don’t have any concern about a preseason final score while in pursuit of building their team to be ready in September.

One way to see where the “smart” money is taking advantage of these situations is where the point spread is moving in contrast to public opinion. During the opening weekend of a full preseason schedule in 2026, the San Francisco 49ers hosted the Tennessee Titans. This was a battle between two teams that in recent seasons have been near the top and near the bottom of the league. The opening line on this game had the homestanding 49ers favored by 2½ points. Yet, since first released and knowledge of what the coaches have revealed in their recent press conferences, the point spread has moved 8½ points … Tennessee was bet up to a 6-point road favorite against the talented 49ers.

“Smart” money is obviously moving this line over public opinion, but they got the game when the Titans were underdogs or a slight favorite. The books pulled the rug out from under the edge with the Titans with the dramatic line shift. Years ago, the books would not have had to move this line so dramatically while cashing in a probable Tennessee win while the betting public was lining up on the favored 49ers.

But today, with the access to information available over the internet and more “smart” money in the game, the advantage of backing the weak Titans against the talented 49ers was erased by the line move. So, we get another lesson on who is the smartest in this game … it’s the books. They have the resources to know more than most bettors, even the more successful ones, and the ability to shift the winner with line moves.

In fact, in the final hour before the 49ers and Titans kicked off the books nudged the line up another half-point, with the final spread offering the 49ers 6½ points. That final line shift made all the difference with a final score seeing the home team losing by six points, 19-13.

Yes, there is wise guy “smart” money in play during the preseason. But they are buying lines before most of the public is getting in on the action. In the 49ers preseason opener, the smart money won with the Titans, while the majority of the public wagers were stuck with a line of six points or more, generating either a push or loss.

Which brings us back to this fact, the smartest money is controlled not by the bettors, but the guys setting the point spreads. That is one reason I approach every season not looking to beat the books but rather win with them.