The fact that our airways and internet are clogged with false information and overstatements is not news. Some of the rumors that are accepted as fact and embellished in some corners have real-world consequences. To a far lesser extent a rumor that has been picked up on multiple sources this week carries less consequences. Heading into the start of the 2026 National Football League season I have heard from multiple sources that underdogs are a solid and overwhelming play against the point spread in the opening week.

Admittedly, that is of a lot less significance than a lot of false news … unless you make a wager based on a false pretense and lose money.

The NFL SiriusXM Network show dedicated an entire segment of their programing to the lopsided edge underdogs enjoy in the opening week of NFL action.

I appreciate the NFL network and listen to it in my car more than any other station and consistently find the information mostly accurate from informed and entertaining hosts. Still, they have fallen prey to this “underdog” theory that doesn’t align with the facts.

In a typical NFL season, underdogs win straight-up 34% of the time and pick up another 16% of the wagers by virtue of the point spread. For those of you keeping score at home, that computes to underdogs and favorites pretty much breaking even against the line.

In the opening week over the past five seasons underdogs have won the games straight-up 36% of the time and picked up an additional 17% of the wager results when factoring in the closing line.

Okay, underdogs do a little better in the opening week than the rest of the season. But the misconception that they are the way to wager is to forgo too many other factors that generate a higher winning percentage against the point spread than the 51-45 results for underdogs on opening day since 2000.

Taking the underdogs on the opening week is promoted as an easy way to generate profits. Truth is, generating profits is not easy and no one pony trick is enough to reliably turn a profit in the opening week and beyond.

At Qoxhi, we do the tough work, and deliver point spread decisions based on a myriad of tendencies and insights. We’ll start this week, and we’ll likely have an underdog among our plays. Most of our point spread decisions over the course of a season are teams getting points on the line. But those picks are not based on them being underdogs, but more importantly, other factors that deliver a better winning percentage with the line an added bonus.