“What business are we in?” Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis asked me in his corner office on Oakport Street in 1974?
“Winning,” I said confidently knowing what Davis’s driving force was after spending two years on his staff.
He let out a subtle chuckle before saying, “No Dennis, that is what we’re here to get done, but we are in the entertainment business.”
The National Football League knows that competition is paramount to driving entertainment value. With this in mind, they find ways to elevate teams with poor records and saddle the winningest teams with challenging situations. They do it with the draft and schedule. Every season they will put the best teams against each other and in tough places to win on the road early in a season to hopefully have them lose a game or two and generate months of close competition in their division races.
Since the 1970’s, the league has implemented current schedules based on the prior year results. Today, last place teams from the prior season will be matched against other teams that finished last in their divisions. First place teams will routinely have a more challenging schedule while meeting other clubs that participated in the playoffs the prior year.
Consider this, when you pick up a magazine or check online for season long projections you can be assured that this fall the teams predicted to do well are the same ones that did good the prior year. You don’t have to have a lot of inside information to know that teams like the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills are all going to be predicted to do well in 2026.
But, what if we look at the opposite end of the scales? Not teams that advanced to the postseason the year before but rather finished last in their division the prior season? Last place teams from last year read like a group whose fan base may spend December with bags over their heads. The last place finishers in 2025 were the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals.
Want to pick playoff teams from that group of cellar-dwellers?
Likely none of those teams will be on most projections for earning a playoff spot this season. But, know what, it is likely at least two of those eight last place teams will advance to the postseason and almost as likely that they will earn at least one playoff win.
Over the past three seasons, at least two teams that finished in the cellar the prior year advanced to the postseason. Three years ago, after finishing in last place the prior year, the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans earned playoff spots. The next season, it was the Los Angeles Chargers and Washington Commanders that rose from the cellar to the playoffs. Last year, the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears went from last place to first place in their divisions.
Once entering the postseason, these new kids in the postseason have also represented themselves pretty well.
In addition to a handful of postseason wins the Commanders advanced all the way to the National Conference Championship Game in the 2024 season. Last year, the New England Patriots won the American Football Conference and met the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LX.
So, while we can predict what the prognosticators will cite as likely division winners, I suggest that at least two will come all the way from the bottom. Which two? My money is on the New York Giants and New Orleans Saints. But don’t eliminate the Cleveland Browns from serious consideration this season.
And the best reality show is set for another season of entertainment.