My numbers consistently show that backing last year’s Super Bowl teams is high risk. I believe this is based on two primary reasons. First, teams that advanced all the way to the Super Bowl are commonly the same teams the public backs the following season and the books prey on this tendency by setting point spreads that shift the advantage in their games. Second, from a purely motivational perspective, it is much more difficult to have the eye of the tiger coming off success than it is looking to blunt a losing run.
Al Davis always said, "Maintaining greatness is a lot more difficult than first achieving it.”
Now, just between you and me, he had said that to me during the 1970’s when his Silver and Black were an NFL powerhouse … I suspect in his later years with the Raiders he found out how hard it was to pull a team up from the bottom.
Nevertheless, his statement holds true for those on top and with that as a guide I am very cautious wagering on either the Seattle Seahawks or New England Patriots this season. They were the two teams that participated in Super Bowl LX, a game won by the Seahawks, 29-13.
The Seahawks and Patriots opened against each other this season and played a defensive game in which Seattle starting quarterback Sam Darnold was injured on the game’s first series of downs. He missed the rest of that contest, won by the home team 13-10, and the Seahawks second week game against the Cardinals in Arizona.
Motivation being the key, the loss of Darnold added the need for the Seahawks to overcome him being sidelined and rally behind backup Drew Lock.