As John Madden used to say at times like this, “It’s time to open a new can of quarterbacks.”
Actually, the Chicago Bears tonight are opening an old can when they start 15-year veteran Case Keenum against the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. A week ago, Keenum was listed third on Chicago’s depth chart, but Caleb Williams is out with an injury and his first backup, Tyson Bagent, spent the week in concussion protocol before being cleared this morning to play.
Head coach Ben Johnson chose to stick with Keenum who has taken all the reps in the practices leading up to tonight’s kickoff. Still, the availability of Bagent is an insurance policy against having no reliable backup if the vet gets knocked out of action tonight.
Perhaps the world would rather have the stage set where two NFL top quarterbacks were ready to play, the Eagles Jalen Hurts and the Bears young star, Williams. That would be a more attractive draw for the game, but the current situation is an advantage that by my count concerns the more important aspect of this contest; the wagering edge.
Had Williams been matched against Hurts tonight the Bears would have been getting a point on the spread or have the game go off as a pick ‘em. With the need to start their backup quarterback, the Bears have a better chance of winning the game and get 3½ points on the line.
What do I mean “a better chance of winning” because their top quarterback is sidelined?
In the world of motivation, and most games are dictated by that, the need to compensate for the loss of a starting quarterback is a consistent spike in a team’s performance. The question now becomes whether the Bears defense is good enough to hold the Eagles offense down enough to win or stay within the spread.
The Eagles in their first two games played like a father teaching his kid to play basketball on their driveway. The father is good enough to dominate, but more intent on giving the kid enough opportunity to stay close before winning in the end. The Eagles have edged their first two opponents this season by the narrowest of margins, 24-22 over the Washington Commanders in their home opener, and 24-20 on the road last Sunday by virtue of a final minute touchdown against the Tennessee Titans.
If Philadelphia follows that pattern tonight’s game will be close, and the benefit of getting the extra points on the spread a huge advantage. I think the game straight-up slightly favors the home team, but the extra points on the line shift a much more significant advantage to Chicago tonight.
The Bears are also in an interesting spot after becoming the team with the greatest point differential in consecutive games. Chicago opened with a road win in Carolina and lit up the Panthers defense for 59 points. Last week, despite Williams not getting injured until midway through the fourth quarter, the Bears were limited at home to three points in a 9-3 loss to the Minnesota Vikings.
In other words, Chicago scored 56 less points in second week action than they did in their opening game. In 2007, the Eagles had the second biggest margin drop when they scored 56 points before putting up three in their next game. This century there have been seven teams that had at least a 46-point drop from one week to the next, and in their following games four of them won.
The Bears are not trotting onto the field tonight with the air of confidence they did last week after scoring 59 points. Nope, they take the field tonight knowing they have to compensate for the absence of Williams after losing at Soldier Field last Sunday while not cracking the endzone.
This wipes the smiles and pregame high-fives from the Bears sideline and replaces it with a resolve that likely will get them a win. And while the Eagles are confident they can prevail, they are the point spread favorite, they don’t have any impetus to run up the score … and when it's close, a bloated line is a real nice thing to have.
Qoxhi Picks: Chicago Bears (+3½) over Philadelphia Eagles