As we close in on the halfway point of the 2026 National Football League season, we can see some teams have overachieved, and some have suffered severe drops. We can see this easily with opening Super Bowl odds compared to current numbers.
It is more common to see a team that was among the favorites to drop off because all it takes is a key injury or two. That is the case with the Baltimore Ravens, who have lost Lamar Jackson for presumably the rest of the season. They opened as one of the favorites to win it all at 10 to 1, today they are 150 to 1.
You think that is a big drop off? How about the Los Angeles Chargers who opened at 17 to 1 and now after losing all their games entering play this week are posted with 1,000 to 1 odds. Two teams have suffered severe drops not based on injuries, but rather simply underwhelming play. The Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans are now both 50 to 1. They opened the season with 25 to 1 and 18 to 1 odds respectively.
Yes, having a team disappoint is common; less common is a team jumping up in their prospects for a Super Bowl win. The Minnesota Vikings opened the season with 50 to 1 odds and now, after winning six of their first seven games and possessing the best defense in the league, have their odds of winning it all sliced to 22 to 1.
Still, the most dramatic improvement in odds belongs to the Chicago Bears. They came into the season with reasonable odds for a team to win it all at 24 to 1, but after eight weeks of play and the acquisition of defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons, the Bears are among the current favorites at 8 to 1.
Everything seems right for the Bears.
Calib Williams, their talented quarterback they selected with the first overall pick in the 2024 draft, has made strides to become one of the true stars in the game. He has a talented offense that is ranked near the top of the league in both rushing offense and defense. Before the trade for Simmons, the Bears pass defense was ranked 18th, but that number was more attributable to their inability to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
When an NFL quarterback has time to throw, he routinely will find a target.
The Simmons acquisition last week is the perfect antidote for allowing opposing quarterbacks too much time to throw. In his first game, a win over the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks on the road, Simmons had six tackles, five quarterback pressures and a sack while the Bears defense dominated the action in a 34-17 victory.
My preseason Super Bowl pick was the Denver Broncos, and while there is no reason to surrender that play given they currently lead the AFC West. Still, if I had a Super Bowl team to pick now, it would be the Bears.
I can’t find anything wrong with this team.
A dynamic young quarterback in his third season, a defense bolstered by the addition of the first defensive lineman in history to warrant two first round choices in a trade, and a head coach that was the architect of the explosive Detroit Lions offense when they were the highest scoring team in the league. Ben Johnson has now settled in during his second season with the Bears.
Tonight, the Bears host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who became the first team in modern history to win a game last Sunday without completing a pass. Relying almost exclusively on their rushing attack to dominate the action during a 16-0 win over the Atlanta Falcons.
The Sunday night primetime game is an opportunity to truly see if the Bears are as good as they appeared in their win over the Seahawks. Because in this game the Bears are served a very tough spot to cover a six-point spread. The Buccaneers opened the season with four straight losses, mostly without starting quarterback Baker Mayfield.
The Buccaneers have won both games since he returned and one of two prior to him recuperating from his injury. That means the Bucs come into this game chasing the Carolina Panthers in their NFC North Division race with three wins and five losses. That record is a bit lower than Tampa Bay’s actual talent level warrants, which makes them a live underdog tonight.
In other words, the Bears appear like they are headed to a win, but the motivational edge belongs to the visitors. Which gives us this to go to school on; if the Bears do win tonight and cover the six-point line they would distinguish themselves as an elite team. I think they are but am not yet ready to bet on them in a bad point spread spot.