With seven weeks of National Football League action in the books, how have our opinions on who is headed to Super Bowl LXI shifted?
Eight weeks ago, before the opening game was played, the Los Angeles Rams were favored to win it all with odds of 5-1. Today, six teams have better odds to capture the Vince Lombardi Trophy that will be presented on Valentine’s Day. At the top of the odds now are the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC and the team with the best numbers to represent the AFC is the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills?
Weren’t they the favored in the AFC before the season began?
Yes.
So, they were favored before and favored now so how they have played through the first seven games must be impressive. Right?
Well, they have won five of their first six games, they had a bye last week, and their quarterback Josh Allen still looks like the best quarterback in football. He has a drive that is unmatched with an obvious willingness to do whatever it takes to lead his team to victories. This could certainly be his year to break out of the Marino/Rivers dungeon, that is being a great quarterback and never winning a Super Bowl.
Before the season began, the odds-on Allen and his Bills winning it all were 10 to 1. Today, those numbers have been sliced in half, 5 to 1.
So, the Bills have been impressive, huh?
Well, they have been exciting and their offense is scoring a league high 32.8 points per game. Football fans love offense … are drawn to it like a moth to a light bulb on a warm summer night.
But, before you jump on the Bills bandwagon headed to the Super Bowl, know this, their defense ranks 30th in the league in points allowed. Only the Washington Commanders and Arizona Cardinals average giving up more points than Joe Brady’s Bills.
Maybe we could have expected this, after all Brady replaced Sean McDermott as head coach of the Bills earlier this year based on his relationship with Allen and his offensive design acumen. But do you know the last team that won a Super Bowl while ranked 30th or below in points allowed? Really, we are not talking about the “last” here because no team has ever had that bad of a defense and won a Super Bowl. If the Bills defensive stats don’t improve, they would be the first team to win a Vince Lombardi Trophy with one of the league’s worst defenses.
Only once this season has the Bills stop unit limited an opponent to less than 20 points, that was when they allowed the Los Angeles Chargers 16 three weeks ago. They gave up 29 points to the New England Patriots in their only loss this season and in their four other wins allowed their opponents 31, 31, 34 and 30 points.
A lead, particularly against the spread, is never safe with the Bills as long as their defense continues to be a swinging gate for opponents. This week, the Bills host the AFC team that started the year with the second-best odds in the AFC to represent the conference in Super Bowl LXI, the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens Super Bowl journey has been somewhat circuitous in its route based on an injury suffered by their star quarterback, Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are 3-1 in the games he has started this season but lost the last two weeks while he was sidelined in games against the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals.
Those are division games for the Ravens, which makes their importance in reaching the playoffs more important. Now the Ravens need to go on the road and meet the first-place Bills who have had a week off since earning their fifth victory over the Raiders. The Bills are currently leading the AFC East while being two up in the loss column over second place New England.
The Ravens, after back-to-back division losses, have dropped to the cellar in the talented AFC North Division.
In other words, the Ravens get Jackson back and are in need of a win as they look to improve their last place division standings. The Ravens need this game more and have the better defense and are coming off a second half meltdown last week when they gave up 35 unanswered points in their loss to the Bengals.
Better defense in a must win game for the underdog is what we can have with the Ravens.
We’ll take it.
Qoxhi Picks: Baltimore Ravens (+3) over Buffalo Bills