When a play shows up that has the New York Jets in a game they are favored, one has to ask the question, “Can’t there be a better play than taking the J E T S as a favorite?”
On Sunday, the Jets host the Las Vegas Raiders, a team that burst on the scene this year with three wins to open the season and over the past four weeks have beaten the point spread in close losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. Their quarterback, Kirk Cousins, is good enough to win on any given day, so why are the Silver and Black underdogs this Sunday at MetLife Stadium?
The Jets quarterback, Geno Smith, was the starter for the Raiders last year when the Silver and Black won only three games and got the first pick in the draft based on the worst record in the league. Now Smith has a chance to battle his old team and does he have the advantage against the players he used to work with, or does the Silver and Black have an edge because they know him well?
From a game-to-game rhythm both these teams are primed for a win. The Raiders have lost four straight including a home blowout loss last week to the Los Angeles Rams. In that game, Las Vegas was only a three point underdog to the team that opened this season as the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
Of course, since opening day, when the Rams were whooped by the San Francisco 49ers, the Rams have not looked like a team destined to win it all. In fact, before Sean McVay’s team dominated the Raiders last week, 35-21, Los Angeles had a losing record … even after that win, they still are on the downside with four losses in seven decisions. They are in a division where they are chasing two teams that have both played better than them and have winning records, the 49ers and Seattle Seahawks.
The Rams dismal season start and the Raiders winning five of six point spread decisions this year entering their encounter with the Rams, had a lot of bettors thinking the Raiders could beat the Rams.
They couldn’t.
The Jets also took one on the chin last week while becoming the first team this season to lose to the Miami Dolphins. In front of their home fans, the Jets were outplayed and outscored by the previously winless Dolphins, 28-25. A loss to a winless team can fire up a squad for their next game, so we’ve got both teams that square off in New York’s home stadium ready to win.
The public is sure the Raiders are going to beat the Jets on the road. Yes, the point spread has moved the Raiders way in this game, the line opened with New York a one-point home underdog and they are now favored by a small number, but that line has shifted more than two points while the public by a wide margin are backing Klint Kubiak’s Raiders.
So, what we can deduce is that the wagering public likes the Raiders and the books are moving the line to attract more and more Las Vegas money.
What does that mean?
It means the public and wise guys are on opposite sides of this one … and while the wise guys don’t always win … you wouldn’t do well betting against them.
So, back to our initial question, “Can’t there be a better play than taking the J E T S as a favorite?"
Not this week.
Qoxhi Picks: New York Jets (-1½) over the Las Vegas Raiders