Seven weeks ago, the Kansas City Chiefs hosted the Denver Broncos in a battle between the best two teams in the AFC West Division. At least, we knew at the time the Broncos were one of the best because they had advanced all the way to their conference championship game in 2025. Whether the Chiefs, who had dominated this division for nearly a decade, were still among the elite was unknown.
Why?
Their future Hall of Fame quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, suffered a serious knee injury late in the 2025 season in a year the defending conference champions won only six regular season games.
Was the clock ticking away on the Chiefs dominance?
It is worth noting that even though Mahomes was hurt last year it wasn’t until December and Kansas City’s disappointing season was already in the books. The year before, the Chiefs skirted disaster after disaster and got away like a fly avoiding a swatter all day in the kitchen. They won a record number of one-score games and it seemed that if they needed a late stop to preserve a win they got it; if they needed a late score to win it, they got it; if the Chiefs needed a last second field goal to win, they got it; and if they needed an opponent to miss a chip shot field goal to preserve a narrow win, the Chiefs got it.
Then they took this path of narrow victories into Super Bowl LIX and got clobbered by the Philadelphia Eagles by an 18 point margin, a gap not nearly as indicative of how much the Eagles dominated the play.
Follow that Super Bowl with a six-win regular season, an injured quarterback, and the man he had counted on for key offensive plays, tightend Travis Kelce, appearing to have had age catch up with his play, and you’ve got a team not all together certain of their fate.
The Broncos came into the opening game at Arrowhead Stadium with headlines proclaiming them one of the primary contenders to win it all. They had won three Super Bowls in their history, two with John Elway and one with Peyton Manning leading their offense. Could Bo Nix join that elite group to add a fourth Vince Lombardi Trophy to their display case?
I thought so, and I was not alone.
Then they played the opening game last month in the Chiefs home stadium.
It seemed that Kansas City answered all critics with a resounding exclamation point that their years as an NFL powerhouse were not over. In fact, some thought, this might be the best Kansas City team ever given Mahomes now had newly acquired runningback Kenneth Walker III taking the pressure off the great quarterback having to get all the yards through the air. On opening night, Walker shredded the highly publicized Denver defense with 174 rushing yards and the home team won going away, 31-10.
The success for Andy Reid and his men didn’t stop with that opening victory as they went on to win four more times before having their unbeaten string snapped last week in a road loss to the defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks.
The Broncos bounced off that opening loss with five wins over the next six weeks, their only loss a road defeat to the then undefeated San Francisco 49ers.
These two AFC powers now square off for the second time this season on Sunday in Denver. The Chiefs come into this contest up a half game in the division standings, they have played one less game than the Broncos and the Broncos have one more loss than the Chiefs.
I am not in the camp with the idea that the Chiefs are not only better than recent editions of the team but more on a par with last season’s six-win squad than the team that participated in five Super Bowls the prior six seasons.
I do think Kelce is a step slower as age creeps up on his play, and I don’t see Mahomes owning the burst he enjoyed before his injury. It is true that Walker, who as a member of the Seattle Seahawks last year was named Most Valuable Player in their Super Bowl win over the New England Patriots, is a dynamic runner. But there have been plenty of teams that have had a big-time rusher that hasn't dominated the standings. In fact, only two NFL season leading rushers led their teams to Super Bowl wins. Emmitt Smith was the first in 1992, and he did it three times with the Dallas Cowboys. Terrell Davis was the NFL’s leading rusher in 1998 when John Elway capped his Hall of Fame career with a victory over the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl XXXIII.
Walker may lead the league in rushing this season, but the Chiefs sprint out of the gate was a result of all the challenges they knew they were facing this year. Once they answered their critics with five wins to open the 2026 campaign, they became sitting ducks for teams prepared to play a team they thought was better than the Chiefs really are.
Last week, when they lost 20-3 in Seattle, was the first time in his career that Mahomes didn’t run an offensive play in the red zone. This week, he won’t have many either, because the better team is statistically behind because of the Chiefs early success but motivationally stoked to lay a lickin’ on the Mile High visitors.
Qoxhi Picks: Denver Broncos (+1) over Kansas City Chiefs