Solid scouting is the key to success in the National Football League.
The best personnel departments will guide their organization through the draft with accurate reports on college prospects that can contribute at the pro level. Fans will gather for the NFL draft that the league has turned into an off-season spectator sport. When their team picks a popular offensive player the fans in the crowd wearing their jerseys will cheer like their team just got better.
When their team picks an offensive lineman or defensive player they never heard of, they cheer anyway while looking at each other for approval.
Truth is, whether their team is selecting a quarterback that was in the running for the Heisman Trophy and the talk of the town or an unknown athlete out of a small college program, the public is cheering on what they know. And it is as unreliable as checking with your four-year-old on what insurance policy to bundle for your home and auto.
People wagering on games are a lot like the fans at the annual draft; clueless and enthusiastic.
Early in a season, the betting public will gravitate to the teams that did well the prior year. The Eagles will get more action than the Cowboys in next week’s season opener. The Kansas City Chiefs are getting more than 80% of the early action for their game against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Conversely, my staff and I spend time scouting teams during the off-season in anticipation of wagering on what is to come, not what has happened. Like the draft, it is not a perfect science, but it certainly gives us a huge edge over the first month of the season while taking advantage of generous point spreads pinned more to last year than what can be expected in 2025.
Historically, Qoxhi Picks has gotten off to very good first month of the season results. In fact, over the past six seasons, the September Top Pick record against the point spread is 17-5-2. We are taking advantage of what we expect while the public is still betting on last year’s results.
This year, our work can be enhanced by what the books are adjusting along the way. Before the preseason played their first game the books had the Chicago Bears favored for their Monday Night Football opener against the Minnesota Vikings. Now, after camp and three preseason games, the Vikings are favored for the Soldier Field matchup scheduled for September 8th.
Is this because the Bears are down in the books perception, the Vikings up, or simply a case of the public loading up on the Vikings side of the play?
Stats show that while the Vikings are getting the majority of the early action, the number is in the mid 50 percent range, certainly not enough to prompt a three-point shift. The Bears opened as a 1½ point favorite and are now getting a like number of points.
Both teams are under the direction of young quarterbacks who were drafted a year ago. Chicago’s Caleb Williams was the first overall selection and J.J. McCarthy, who completed his college career leading Michigan to a National Championship, was chosen with the tenth overall selection by the Vikings. Williams had some moments in his rookie season with Chicago but didn’t yet lead the Bears out of the NFC North Division cellar. McCarthy missed playing in his rookie year after a preseason injury sidelined him.
In the preseason, the Vikings opened their first summer game with McCarthy behind center and he completed four of seven passes for 30 yards and ran once for eight. While it was scant action to draw a conclusion, the Vikings saw enough to determine he was over his injury and ready to be the Vikings starter this season.
It seemed to also be enough for the books, they shifted the spread on this game by a bigger margin, three points, than any other early opening line to this week.
The public is going to like a Vikings team that won 14 games last year despite them making a switch at quarterback. And the books, well, so far, they agree. This is where unemotional scouting is required.
Those that are wearing Chicago caps and jerseys see it one way, fans dressed in Vikings garb will most likely see it the other way. The books are in the position of having to balance what they know and public opinion.
As for us, at Qoxhi, we get to make a call without any partial leaning to either side until we go all in on one.