My current favorite comedian is Nate Bargatze.
In his live act he has one defense when in an argument with his wife, “At least I do my own laundry.” To get the full humor in that line you’d have to see his act.
Last Sunday, I found I was using a similar defense when my wife criticized me for picking the New York Jets. It was the third week in a row that I had recommended a wager on the winless team from New York. I found no need to point out that while they lost two weeks ago to the Dallas Cowboys, they did cover their point spread the prior Sunday against the Denver Broncos. My numbers said they were in line for a straight-up win last Sunday when they hosted the Carolina Panthers.
Didn’t happen.
And while the questioning of my wisdom continued as the Jets offense sputtered, I found myself with a defense parallel to Bargatze's when I blurted out, “Well at least I didn’t bet on the Titans.”
It was a weak defense.
Who would bet on the Titans?
The first team this year to fire their head coach and a squad that only once in their seven games this year got a win, that a gift from the Arizona Cardinals when the home team melted down in a 22-21 decision. Even with generous point spreads the Titans have only won a pair of games against the line, that being an opening win over the Denver Broncos and their lone victory in Arizona.
This week, the weak Titans are on the road against the team that has scored the most points in the league and has the best record, the 6-1 Indianapolis Colts. It is the second time this season that the Colts and Titans have met, Indianapolis won in Tennessee in third week action, 41-20.
Okay, here is where I come up with teams like the Jets and Titans based on numbers I read that don’t necessarily factor in rushing, passing and scoring stats. I’m looking at motivation with knowledge that the old axiom that any team can win on any given Sunday is true.
Now, I don’t actually believe that. I think there are matchups where one team does not have a snowball chance in hell of coming away with a win. But those games match both talent with the motivation created by the situation. In Indianapolis this Sunday, the situation and motivation is in stark contrast to the simple X’s and O’s.
The Colts have a bulge in their AFC South Division standings and the team that was thought to be their primary competition, the Houston Texans, lost another game last Monday night. That allowed Indianapolis players to follow-up celebrating their Sunday win over the Los Angeles Chargers with seeing their division lead enhanced while the Texans fell in Seattle.
Can you see this from my side?
Football players are human. They have good days and bad days and when things look easiest, they are most likely to stumble.
Tell me what the spike is to drive the Colts to a big win this week?
While you’re searching for that, I’ll tell you what I think is the edge the Titans carry into this contest. First, given the results on the season they are going into Lucas Oil Stadium fearful of a one-sided loss. As John Madden always said, “Fear is the greatest motivator.”
Couple that fear, which should serve as a spike in the Titans performance, with this week’s film studies that show them getting slaughtered, 41-20, by the Colts on September 21st.
That Colts win was before we knew, and more importantly they knew, how good they were. The Colts won on opening day against a Miami Dolphins team that has only picked up one win this season and then needed a last second field goal to edge the Denver Broncos in a second straight home game. They then went to Tennessee, and were favored by six points, which is not a prohibitive line but was a precursor to a lopsided Indianapolis victory.
Now here we are five weeks later, and we know two things for sure … the Colts are really good, and the Titans are really bad. And that fact lends well to a surprise competitive game based on the motivational factors.
So, this week, I won’t be able to use last week’s argument with my wife, “At least I didn’t bet on the Titans.”
Qoxhi Picks: Tennessee Titans (+14) over Indianapolis Colts