Two questions today.
How good are the Denver Broncos?
How bad are the Houston Texans?
Sean Payton’s Broncos have a squad strength that is common to teams that win it all, a rock-solid defense. Yet, for the first six weeks of the season, the Bo Nix led attack was sketchy. They hadn’t cracked the 30-point barrier and despite winning four of their first six games for a share of first place in the AFC West Division, their point spread record was two wins against four losses.
In other words, the public had the Broncos overrated as evidenced by them not covering spreads even while winning.
Then, the past two weeks, the Broncos offense hit a stride. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter against the New York Giants that Nix began to consistently move the offense, but when he did he put up a game winning 33 fourth quarter points to stage a dramatic come-from-behind win over the visitors from the Big Apple, 33-32. Last week, again at the Mile High Stadium, the Broncos put up their biggest point total of the season while pulling away from the Dallas Cowboys, 44-24.
So, is this a Broncos team good enough to outscore an opponent when offense rules the day, and trusty enough to grind out the tough wins when defense is the key?
In fact, they have proven this season they can do both, but does that mean they are in for an easy win tomorrow when they battle the Texans in Houston?
The Broncos have surged to the top in the competitive AFC West over teams that came into the season rated higher than them, the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. The Texans have managed to only stay ahead of the pitiful Tennessee Titans in the AFC South Division.
An opening Houston loss on the road to the Los Angeles Rams was close enough, 13-9, to not severely dampen the Texans prospects of being a good team. A second week home defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by one point was disappointing, given they allowed Baker Mayfield to drive his team the length of the field in the final minute to cap the win for the visitors. Still, the confidence they were going to be competitive in the race to the playoffs was not totally blotted out by the stinging loss to Tampa Bay.
It was that third straight defeat, this one to division rival Jacksonville, that sounded alarm bells for the Texans with a real fear that this just may not be their year. Perhaps they are not as good as they were the past two seasons when they both earned a playoff spot and won a postseason game.
The narrow loss to Jacksonville, 17-10, had the Texans hit rock bottom.
From there, it was only up.
It started with a shutout win over the Tennessee Titans, 26-0, and then a blowout victory over the Baltimore Ravens, 44-10. Following their bye week Houston met the talented Seattle Seahawks in the Northwest, and were inept on offense while missing on key plays to pick up first downs and crack the endzone from inside one yard. The Texans defense kept them in the game in Seattle despite woes on offense. When it was over, Houston flew home on the heels of a 27-19 loss on Monday Night Football.
Last week, DeMeco Ryans’ team rebounded from that defeat to down a San Francisco 49ers team that, despite numerous injuries, was holding first place in the talented NFC West Division.
So, who are the Texans?
If they have a weakness, and they do, it is a suspect offensive line, and the Broncos come to town with more sacks than any team in the league. In fact, Denver’s 36 sacks through eight games put them on pace to record more than any team in history. Statistically, they would be on a par with the 1984 Chicago Bears, who have the record with 72 sacks recorded in 16 regular season games. This year, the Broncos have 17 games to pad their sack number.
So, can you see the Broncos licking their chops for a shot at C.J. Stroud behind an offensive line that has had trouble protecting their quarterback?
How good are the Broncos? How bad are the Texans?
This week, the Broncos come riding in after swamping the Dallas Cowboys defense, which is akin to passing through the revolving door at the Ritz. Instead of feasting on the Cowboys, they run smack into one of the best stop units in the league, that of the Houston Texans. This is an offense that was shutout for three quarters on their home field by the Giants two weeks ago and hadn’t cracked the 30 mark on the year until that game. Now they come off a 44-point explosion against the defenseless Cowboys, no doubt more confident than their talent dictates.
And the Texans, well they are not trying to hold a perch atop their division race, as are the Broncos, they are fighting for their lives in a quest to get back into the Wild Card playoff hunt. For all practical purposes the Texans have surrendered to the dominance of the AFC South leading Indianapolis Colts.
How good and how bad are these two teams?
Good enough for the home team to win … why else would they be favored on the point spread against a first-place team?
Qoxhi Picks: Houston Texans (-1½) over Denver Broncos