The National Football League opens the fifth week of regular season play tonight in Los Angeles with the Rams hosting the San Francisco 49ers. It is another edition of the rivalry between the two west coast cities that exists in all three major sports. The Major League Baseball rivalry coincided with the history of the Giants and Dodgers. They were rivals in New York when they played out of the Big Apple and Brooklyn respectively. They moved west the same year, 1958, and the Giants/Dodgers games always bring out the most enthusiastic fans.
In the National Basketball Association, the Lakers and Warriors games take on special meaning, Although, save a couple years in the 1970’s and some recent seasons, the Lakers dominance over the Warriors didn’t allow their competition to reach fever pitch like the baseball and football battles have.
Tonight, the Rams and 49ers come in with 3-1 records, a mark only good enough to get a share of first place in the NFC West Division with another 3-1 team, the Seattle Seahawks. While their records are the same, the prospects of the Rams and 49ers are quite different.
The Rams only loss was a hard-fought game they appeared to be on their way to win while playing the defending and undefeated Super Bowl Champions on their home field. In that game, Matthew Stafford and company had built a 26-7 second half lead before the Philadelphia Eagles made a furious comeback to take a 27-26 lead.
The Rams had a chance to salvage the victory, but a would-be winning field goal kick was blocked and returned to the house to make the final score 33-26 Eagles. It was a bitter loss for Los Angeles, but wins over the Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts still provides a share of first place for the Sean McVay coached Rams.
The 49ers three-win season has been achieved in less impressive fashion.
They opened with a road win over the Seattle Seahawks, impressive when you consider Seattle hasn’t lost a game since. But, in that game the 49ers starting quarterback, Brock Purdy, suffered a turf toe that has hampered or prevented his play ever since. The 49ers offense was also crippled by the loss of All Pro Tightend George Kittle, who suffered an injury that still has not allowed him to return to the field.
In second week action, backup quarterback Mac Jones was good enough to lead the 49ers to a win over the still winless New Orleans Saints. The 49ers somehow survived a third week contest at Levi’s Stadium against the Arizona Cardinals. A last play of the game field goal provided the winning margin for the home team, 16-15.
In that win, the 49ers lost for the season the services of their best defensive player, Nick Bosa. Without him, the 49ers defense didn’t take full advantage of the return to the lineup of Purdy last week and dropped a home decision to the Jacksonville Jaguars, 26-21.
Now, with Bosa and Kittle still sidelined, Purdy and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall joins the 49ers would-be starters on the sidelines tonight. The rash of injuries in San Francisco is nothing new. It is as if they made a deal with the devil three years ago to win the Super Bowl and have suffered more injuries than any team in the league since.
Problem is, they are the walking wounded but they didn’t win the Super Bowl three years ago, they lost in overtime to the Kansas City Chiefs.
You just can’t trust the devil.
So, what about tonight?
I’ll tell you, when we thought the 49ers were going to be healthier for this game and the line opened with the Rams favored by five points, I considered the home team a viable proposition to beat the spread. But I see injuries differently than most people. I see injuries as a call to action for the affected team to overcome the challenge and pick up a motivational edge that can win them the game or at least take advantage of a line bloated by the situation.
Yes, the Rams giving five points was perhaps a good pick while my numbers show they are the likely team to come out of this contest with a fourth victory.
But to lay nine points while the 49ers know they have to play the game of their life to compensate for the injuries is not something I recommend wagering into. But, don’t misread that caution, I am still not interested in betting on the undermanned 49ers against a superior Rams squad.