The Kansas City Chiefs consecutive division titles ended this year. Last week's loss to the Houston Texans eliminates the possibility of them overtaking the Denver Broncos in the AFC West Division.
The team they play on Sunday, the Los Angeles Chargers, still have a mathematical chance of catching the Broncos and close out their 2025 regular season against the Broncos on the road … a game that could decide the West.
For that to happen, the Charges need to get to within one game of the Broncos in the standings because if they do that, a win in the Mile High City to end the season would have them win the AFC West by virtue of a pair of victories over the Broncos this season. The Chargers beat the Broncos at SoFi Stadium in September … and the Broncos haven’t lost a game since in building their two-game division cushion.
Okay, that is a lot of balls in the air, but how about the Chargers at Arrowhead this week? Will the Chiefs now fold their tent and look forward to a month off when for the past nine seasons they played postseason games? How much do the Chiefs have left in their tank after dropping their last two games at Dallas on Thanksgiving and last Sunday night at home to the Houston Texans?
In fact, the defending AFC Champions who have participated in the last three Super Bowls have lost four of their most recent five games. Why then are they favored on Sunday against a Los Angeles team that is three games ahead of them in the standings and beat them on a neutral field, in Brazil, to open this season?
Why was the line opened at what appeared to be a number too high, apparently pegged to what the Chiefs used to be instead of what they are. The opening line on this game had the home team favored by 4½ points, and even though a solid majority of bettors are taking the road team here, the line has crept up to as high as six points.
The line opened too high, the public bet the number, and the line went higher.
Seems the books are bent on attracting Chargers money.
Why? Do they know something?
Despite the Chiefs chances of a tenth straight division title eliminated, this Kansas City team is still alive for a Wild Card playoff berth. They need to win, and get help, but it is not farfetched to think Andy Reid and company could make a late run that earned them a playoff date.
Likely?
No.
Possible?
Yes.
Perhaps the books know that in the cold weather the broken hand Chargers Quarterback Justin Herbert is playing with is going to be more trouble than it was for him last Monday night when he beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Los Angeles.
Perhaps the books are banking on the fact that Herbert was sacked seven times last week and survived in overtime to beat the Eagles. The Chargers got all the breaks in that game and still won by the narrowest of margins. Now they go into enemy territory against a Chiefs team looking to avoid being eliminated from even a Wild Card possibility after relinquishing their hold on division titles.
Whatever factors the books were counting on to set a high line they double downed on collecting Los Angeles wagers by moving the line up even while the public was betting on the Chargers.
You want to bet against the books?
Bad idea.
Want to win with them?
Me too.
Qoxhi Picks: Kansas City Chiefs (-6) over Los Angeles Chargers