Four weeks into the National Football League season and only two teams remain unbeaten … and there is no surprise there with the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles the 4-0 teams. It would follow book if those were the two teams that met next February in Super Bowl LX.
There are also three teams that are still looking for an initial 2025 win, and once again, no surprises. The 0-4 teams are the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans and New Orleans Saints.
Based on results, the best division in football is the NFC West. The four teams in the NFC West have combined for 11 wins and no team has a losing record. The San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks are all 3-1, while the Arizona Cardinals have won two of their four contests. No other division in football has their four teams combining for wins in double-digits with the NFC North winning the second most games, nine.
Once an NFL season shifts to the second month of play teams that are at the top of the standings are saddled with extra points from the books. The purpose of the books is to make the best teams bad bets. Already, the Buffalo Bills have lost twice against the line. They didn’t cover double-digit point spreads against two weaklings, the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints.
The Eagles didn’t cover the spread in their season opening win over the Dallas Cowboys, but have now covered the line in each of their most recent wins over quality opponents, the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
What we can take from this, and it is historically common, is that the best teams get up for tough opponents but have lapses against weaker ones. It is all in the preparation, no matter how often a coach will tell his players that he has to be aware that the Saints, Panthers or Titans could upset them, they won’t believe it.
That creates a double-edge sword working against the best teams to continue to beat the point spread. The books are trying to hand them losses with bloated lines while the public is betting on them, and the players are confident of wins without needing to prepare for a competitive battle.
In most cases, teams like the Bills will be able to pull out a win on talent alone, but covering a bloated line is another story.
Then there is the case of a good team coming off a loss. Most know that good teams are motivated following a defeat, but to get full value off a loss requires more than just a loss, it also has to have an upcoming opponent that the good team respects. If a good team loses but figures a win is just 60 minutes of game clock away, they can absorb another surprise setback and even more often a point spread loss.
The Detroit Lions have righted their ship after suffering an opening loss to the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. In that game, the Lions were limited to 13 points, fewer than they had scored in any game the prior two seasons. There were many questions on whether the Lions were going to be as good as they were last season when they won 15 regular season games. Concern revolved around the fact that they had an almost all new coaching staff after losing much of Dan Campbell’s crew after last season including their offensive and defensive coordinators. Ben Johnson got the head coach position with the Chicago Bears and Aaron Glenn moved into the same position with the New York Jets.
Over the past three weeks their concerns have been answered with romp wins over the Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns. In two weeks, the Lions go to Arrowhead Stadium to meet the revitalized Kansas City Chiefs. Before that, they will play the Cincinnati Bengals on the road.
Over the past three weeks they have risen to sole possession of first place in the NFC North Division and scored more points than any team in the league. Next week is a big one against the Chiefs, and this week, well I just don’t see a sprocket that is going to inspire the Lions to roll a struggling Bengals team.
Win, probably. Cover the bloated line, a number that opened with Detroit favored by 8½ points and has already grown to double-digits digits? Not likely.
Qoxhi Picks: Cincinnati Bengals (+10) over Detroit Lions