Two weeks ago, on Thanksgiving, the Cincinnati Bengals visited the Baltimore Ravens in a game that saw the return of Joe Borrow at quarterback for the road team. After a rocky season start, punctuated by injuries, the Ravens were on a five game winning streak that saw them recover from a one and five record to catch the Pittsburgh Steelers for the top spot in the AFC North Division.
The Bengals also were down this season based to a great extent on the injury that sidelined Burrow for ten weeks.
The Ravens were favored by 6½ points when they hosted Cincinnati two weeks ago, and nearly two-thirds of the wagering dollars were expecting Lamar Jackson and company to continue on their winning ways and win by a touchdown or more.
Didn’t happen.
After the game the buzz in the media was that Burrow makes the Bengals defense better. Okay, Burrow is a galvanizing factor on the fate of the Bengals prospects, but improve a defense that is on their way to giving up possibly more points than any team in NFL history? I don’t think so. That is on a par that has us thinking our car is running better after we washed it.
Still, it can be argued with some empirical evidence that with Burrow the Bengals are a Super Bowl threat, and without him, they hover around the Cleveland Browns in the standings.
This week, they have Burrow behind center when the Ravens visit Cincinnati, and the home team looks to treat their visitors without the welcome mat Baltimore laid out on Thanksgiving. In their first meeting, the Bengals dominated the action from start to finish and closed out the holiday in Baltimore with a thud for the hometown fans, 32-14.
The game served to drop the Ravens out of a first-place tie with the Steelers for a few days. On the Sunday of the Thanksgiving weekend, the Steelers got beat by the Buffalo Bills, in equally convincing fashion, 26-7. The 13 weeks of NFL action brought the Steelers and Ravens together to decide who was going to enter this weekend in first place.
The Steelers.
All the work John Harbaugh’s team did to overcome a 1-5 start now dropped them again behind a Steelers team that is not as good as most units Mike Tomlin has coached. Pittsburgh is vulnerable. Their defense is surprisingly suspect, and their offense, under the direction of Aaron Rodgers, is at a stage where if it were an automobile, you would be considering trading it in for a new model.
Still, this Steelers team was good enough to hand Baltimore a second straight loss and fourth straight losing point spread decision last week, 27-22.
The Ravens were favored by 5½ points and lost by five. In my calculations, that means the books and public overrated Baltimore by 10½ points. And this week, the team that beat them two weeks ago as an underdog, the Bengals, get another shot at them on their home field and once again are getting points on the line.
After a disappointing start to their season the Ravens were not confident when they began a five-game winning streak to see them rise to the top of the AFC North standings.
They were confident on Thanksgiving and got blasted by the Bengals. They were favored at home again last Sunday and the Steelers beat them.
Think they are confident now after a pair of losses that dropped them out of the top spot in their division and against the team that beat them soundly two weeks ago?
Confidence is the first peg in a motivational dip that leads to a surprise loss. When confidence is replaced with need and focus you get, well, you get the Ravens on Sunday in Cincinnati.
Qoxhi Picks: Baltimore Ravens (-2½) over Cincinnati Bengals