Two years ago it was the Houston Texans. Last season it was the Washington Commanders. This year it is …
Every National Football League season seems to produce at least one team that no one saw coming that rose from last place in their division to a postseason berth. The Texans improved from a 3-13-1 record in 2022 to the playoffs which included an opening postseason victory over the Cleveland Browns, 45-14.
Last year, the Commanders, who like the Texans of 2023, had a first-year head coach and rookie quarterback, and ended years of dismal cellar-dwelling seasons to advance to the postseason and earn a pair of wins in January over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and top seed Detroit Lions.
For the record, both these breakout campaigns ended before either the Texans or Commanders advanced to the Super Bowl. But spectacular improvements in the regular season and postseason wins spiked the enthusiasm of their fans.
Okay, a rookie quarterback and first-year head coach was the formula that produced the two most recent dramatic shifts in fortunes. While that is not a common combination to strike winning gold, changes in franchises from the previous year is a necessary ingredient to expect dramatic improvement.
Stick with what you’ve got and hope for the best is a formula the New York Giants seem to rely on, and it has not produced any positive results over the past number of seasons. This year, they have made a shift at quarterback, but if they think that a veteran on the shadowy side of his career is the answer, namely Russell Wilson, well that’s the Giants way.
Winning teams don’t subscribe to this routine.
So, here is one of the easiest things to predict at the beginning of a season … New York teams are still in trouble.
But what team has the credentials that has vaulted other last place teams to the playoffs in past years?
Brace yourself, this might both surprise you and still look lame when the results for the season are in. But the Tennessee Titans have the makeup of a 2025 winner.
Last year, no team got more wise guy wagering action that failed to produce positive results than the Titans. I was on them on opening day and fell victim to the first team ever that lost while leading by 17 points and not giving up a defensive touchdown. In Caleb Williams’ first game with the Chicago Bears he looked like a rookie trying to find his way, but that 17-0 deficit was overcome while the Titans gave up touchdowns on an interception, fumble and special teams that resulted in a 24-17 Chicago Soldier Field win.
I got off looking to buy a win with the Titans early-on, but wise guys followed them all season with the theory that with that line in this spot the Titans are a viable play. They rarely were while compiling the worst point spread record in the NFL last season, 2-14-1.
One thing about point spread players that beat the odds with winning seasons, they have short memories. One would think that a dismal campaign like that would send bettors as far away from the Titans as possible, and that is true for the average lamb that gets fleeced consistently by the books.
But the investors in the know?
They see a lot of talent on the roster in Tennessee and now the insertion of a rookie quarterback that could benefit from low expectations. Cam Ward was the first player selected in this year’s draft and whether he can match the success of rookies Jayden Daniels of last season or C.J. Stroud two years ago is an open question.
But, like Stroud in Houston and Daniels in Washington, he is on a team that looks to rebound from last place and has the overall talent to enjoy that turnaround.
I’ll take a leap of faith that the Titans fortunes are about to turn for the better, beginning with their contest on Friday in Atlanta where the public is solidly backing the home team and the point spread is rising on the Titans as a road favorite.
Qoxhi Picks: Tennessee Titans (-3) over the Atlanta Falcons