Ten weeks ago the Buffalo Bills hosted the New England Patriots.
These two teams have ruled the AFC East Division for a quarter of a century. The New England Patriots won the division nearly every year during Tom Brady’s Hall of Fame career beginning in 2001 and concluding with his move to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020. The Bills have won the AFC East the past five seasons while quarterback Josh Allen has been the dominant force in the division.
When the Bills and Patriots met in the first week of October, the Bills entered the game with a perfect 4-0 mark and the Patriots were 2-2 with losses against the Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers. Their two victories were gained against two suspected weak teams: the Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers.
Few figured the Patriots would close in on the division leaders in their first 2025 meeting, and the homestanding Bills were favored by 7½ points.
The Patriots did win that day … and they have won every game they have played since.
In a surprise reversal of fortunes, the Patriots have become the preeminent team in the AFC East in Mike Vrabel’s first year as their head coach. New England has done some pretty amazing things this season, including establishing a record for teams that score 23 or more points and allow 23 or less points. Why does that stat matter? Well, no team that has done that at least seven straight weeks hasn’t gone on and won their league championship.
There were five teams that had scored and allowed 23 or more and less points in the history of professional football before this season. The first to it was the 1949 Philadelphia Eagles, who won the National Football League championship that year. In 1961, the Houston Oilers did it, then went on to win the American Football League title. In the Super Bowl era, three teams before this season had turned this trick, the 1984 San Francisco 49ers, 1999 St. Louis Rams and 2024 Philadelphia Eagles, and all those teams ended their seasons in a hail of confetti with a Roman Numeral victory.
The Patriots have for nine straight weeks scored 23 or more and allowed 23 or less, no team has ever done it longer.
Does that mean the Patriots are going to win the Super Bowl?
It is an indicator like gathering clouds on a winter day in Foxboro indicates snow is on the way. It is not certain, but it is a precursor for sure.
And this week, the Patriots are point spread underdogs.
Quick, stop reading and rush to the book to get your money down on the Patriots plus the point on the line.
Wait, not so fast. After all, if the Patriots are underdogs after winning ten straight games who do you think the books want you betting on? Not the Bills, that’s for sure. But betting against a team on a ten-game winning streak and with an offense led by the potential Most Valuable Player, Drake Maye, seems like a bad idea.
No. It’s a good idea.
True, the Patriots have won ten in a row and come into this game with a chance to clinch the AFC East Division title with a victory. Their 11-2 mark is two better than the Bills, and a New England triumph here would push the Bills three games back and with the Patriots sweeping the season series against Allen and company the division race would be settled.
Do you really think the Bills are going to allow that? A team with a winning tradition that comes into this game with only five wins in their last nine games is favored for a reason. They have not been nearly as impressive on the defensive side of the ball as Vrabel’s Patriots, but they come into this contest with their backs against the wall.
Do or die.
The books know that. The books know the Bills are likely to not allow the Patriots to end their hopes of a sixth straight division title on Sunday. That’s why the books have the Bills a road favorite, and the Patriots getting that one point at home.
Point spread candy will turn sour for those that take a bite.
Qoxhi Picks: Buffalo Bills (-1) over New England Patriots