Just how good are the Denver Broncos?
Sean Payton’s team owns the best record in the National Football League with a dozen wins in 12 decisions. They have not lost a game since September and during their 11-game winning streak they have wins over the likes of the Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, and Green Bay Packers.
The best of the best. Right?
Well, the Broncos also have wins over the Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, New York Giants, Washington Commanders and a pair of victories over the Las Vegas Raiders. Those five teams are among the worst units in the league; they have a combined won/loss record of 13-57. You know what else those five cellar dwellers have in common?
They all beat the Broncos this year against the point spread.
That’s right, despite the Broncos playing well against their most challenging competition, they are consistently overrated on the point spread when playing the sisters of the poor.
Now, this tendency can be interpreted in more than one way. Either the Broncos aren’t as good as their straight-up record or, this is the best team ever. A squad that knows how to keep the action in front of them, do not have the need to blow away overmatched competition, and consistently win the game.
This week, the Broncos play a good team, the AFC South Division leading Jacksonville Jaguars. Does that mean it is a call for the Broncos to do well? That has been a pattern for this team that is dominated by perhaps the best defense in the league and an offense directed by quarterback Bo Nix that does not make mistakes.
The Jaguars quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, is not particularly fleet of foot and he has been sacked 32 times this season. The Broncos have spent this campaign on a pace that could end with them having the most season sacks in NFL history. Coming into Sunday’s Mile High meeting with the Jaguars, Denver has sacked opposing quarterbacks 58 times.
Both the Broncos and Jaguars lead their AFC divisions, Jacksonville by one game over the Houston Texans in the South and Denver by two games over the Los Angeles Chargers in the West. The Broncos currently hold the top seed slot for the AFC playoffs, with a one game conference lead over the New England Patriots. The Jaguars come into this contest with two less wins than the Broncos.
In other words, the Broncos have more of a cushion in their division standings than the team they are playing this week and a current hold on the best record in the AFC.
If Denver wins this game, they eliminate the possibility of the Jaguars catching them in the conference race and will maintain at least a one game edge over the Patriots for the top seed in the playoffs. With a win, there is a solid chance the Broncos lock on the top spot in the AFC could bulge to two games, New England is an underdog on Sunday night in Baltimore.
Did I just say “lock?”
Yeah, but not like it is tossed around in the handicapping world with little intelligence supporting the claim. I don’t mean this game is a “lock” point spread winner, I mean if, with evidence to support this claim, that if the Broncos win, they “lock” the Jaguars out of any chance at earning the AFC top seed.
That is still a “lock,” and I just don’t think that will happen either. The Jaguars are simply playing too well to think the Broncos are going to slide off their come-from-behind win over the Green Bay Packers with another impressive home victory to extend their win streak.
When the trap door opens, and “locks” are unhinged, the result could be a lot more lopsided in the visitor’s favor than anyone is expecting. And in lieu of that, more than a field goal on the point spread is a solid investment on the team I think will win straight-up.
Qoxhi Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3½) over Denver Broncos