The National Football League completes their preseason schedule today with ten games on the docket. The action begins with a 9:00 a.m. Pacific Time meeting between the Baltimore Ravens and Washington Commanders. In a game an hour later we get our first of multiple plays when the Cleveland Browns host the Los Angeles Rams.
Last season, the Rams became the first team in NFL history to lose four of their first five games and then go on to win their division. After hammering the Minnesota Vikings to open their postseason action the Rams gave the Philadelphia Eagles all they could handle before falling to the eventual Super Bowl Champions on the road.
The Rams slow start in 2024 was pinned to two primary reasons. First, Sean McVay’s squad was hit with a rash of injuries and second, they were playing their first games without the services of one of the best defensive players of the past decade, defensive lineman Aaron Donald. He retired after the 2023 season and is in line to be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame as soon as he is eligible.
This year, the Rams are also looking to overcome injuries to their franchise quarterback, Matthew Stafford. He has been suffering from a back injury that has prevented him from participating in any of the team’s preseason games. He did practice with the team this week but will not make the trip to Cleveland for today’s preseason finale against the Browns.
Stafford missing is a big reason the point spread for today’s game has gone from the Browns favored by less than a field goal on the opening line to double digits.
Is this shift warranted?
The Rams have not had Stafford’s services yet and they have won both their summer games, 31-21 over the Dallas Cowboys and 23-22 against the Los Angeles Chargers. So how can they be underdogs by more than a touchdown to the Browns?
When Cleveland is mentioned in conversation the team is usually pegged as big losers. But that has not always been the case in recent years. In fact, as recently as two seasons ago the Browns cracked the playoff field.
Their coach, Kevin Stefanski, is respected for the job he does in Cleveland even though his teams have never had the look of a champion.
Then why are they 10-point favorites over the Rams today?
It is not the public’s doing, they are wagering on the visiting Rams by more than 70%.
So, if it isn’t the public, who is moving this line?
The wise guys and the books. Wise guy moves don’t always win, even when against a big public number, but you wouldn’t want the results on the other side.
The opening number on this game was adjusted before most books posted the first line everyone had an opportunity to wager. Early in the week the Browns were giving seven points. That is when the most informed wise guys got their action down on this game. A spread move will typically shift the point spread winner 7% of the time. That is having the move affect the outcome. For example, if the Browns were to win today’s game by eight or nine points the spread shift from the line available to the public early will have cost the point spread decision.
For clients of Qoxhi Picks I have always strived to give them all the advantages available to enhance their bottom-line profits. Since 2012, we have offered early releases to premium clients on games we see the early line likely to be better than the closing number on our selections. In a typical NFL season, there are 40 games recommended to be wagered on before the closing line, and three games or so are routinely affected. That enhances a bottom line 12 to 14 percent, while last year early numbers accounted for eight games winning or pushing that would have pushed or lost and moved the bottom line up 40% for the season.
This information can be gained on the Point Spread Move chart available online. The graph shows not only the opening and current line for every game but the projected move of the point spread. Once a client knows what the play is, this information allows one to ascertain whether to bet on that game now or if the projected line suggests waiting for a better number to secure a wager.
In 2025, we at Qoxhi will offer these early releases to every client and post the recommended early week wager with what we consider the advantageous line. While the line shift won’t affect 93% of our wagers, a better line will always help on the 7% of games affected.
Today, we are already laying the big number with the Browns. But keep in mind what looks like too many points is a common trap set by the books to get the gamblers to leap at the number, while the books sit back with a Cheshire Cat grin and collect at the end of the day.
I suggest, in this one, we collect with the books.
Qoxhi Picks: Cleveland Browns (-10) over Los Angeles Rams