Tom Tolbert is the kind of person lucky people have as a friend. In 2005, I was lucky enough to meet on air the one-time star basketball player at the University of Arizona and an athlete that played a few of his years in the NBA with the Golden State Warriors. After his playing days, Tolbert has been a star in the broadcast field.
He had a short stint with ESPN but gained his most notoriety in the San Francisco Bay Area as a commute time broadcast personality on KNBR Radio. He spent 25 years entertaining the Bay Area and making slow commutes on the Bay Bridge more tolerable. I started working with him 20 years ago, doing a few short radio shots discussing National Football League games. Our work grew to weekly shows during the NFL season on KNBR and I was proud to be among his ongoing guests that included former 49ers Steve Young and Brent Jones.
Tolber’s time at KNBR ended last October, but he has now taken his bright humor and intelligent will-informed perspective on sports to a podcast, the Tom Tolbert Show. I get to be a part of his podcast each Friday during the NFL season.
Our unscripted banter capitalizes on my ability to isolate NFL winners and his often like-thinking edge on not only what teams are most talented, but from our perspective, which teams are in a spot where the point spread in the game lends to a viable wager.
Tom knows handicapping. In fact, if you call his number and he doesn’t pick up you get a message that says, “Hi, it’s Tom. I’m not here to answer your call or else I’m just too lazy to pick up the phone. If I was a betting man, and I might be, I’d choose the latter.”
When I do connect with Tom, his perspective on the games is one I respect as much or more than any person that claims to be an expert. While we share thoughts on games, and have gentle competition on games we see differently, Tolbert will sometimes bring up a game and reasons for liking it that shines a light on something I missed.
That happened yesterday.
The popular current “it” team in the NFL is the Green Bay Packers. While they were on most football followers' radar before the season for being a viable Super Bowl contender, two weeks into the 2025 season they have leapfrogged the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs to rise to the top of published rankings.
Why?
Well, first they have advanced to the postseason in recent years behind veteran quarterback Jordan Love. The Packers are looking for Love to follow signal callers that are certain Hall of Fame entrants. Brett Favre already has a bust in Canton and Aaron Rodgers will have his added to the Hall of Fame collection five years after he retires.
Love has not yet elevated his play to earn a spot in the Hall of Fame, but after an injury plagued campaign last year he is healthy this season and has guided Green Bay to a pair of convincing wins over the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders. Next week, Green Bay will be in Dallas to meet the Cowboys. And that has special significance.
Perhaps the primary reason why the Packers prospects have risen so dramatically is tied to their late August acquisition of one of the best defensive players in football, Micah Parsons. The one-time Cowboy was locked in a neverending contract negotiation with Dallas owner Jerry Jones, who finally ended the contested contract dispute by trading his star to the Packers.
The trade elevates the already talented Green Bay defense to perhaps the best in football. Last week, the Lions, who averaged a league high 33 points in 2024, dented the Chicago Bears defense for 52 points. Between scoring a league high 564 points last year and scorching Ben Johnson’s Bears for half-a-hundred, the Packers limited Jared Golf and company to 13 points while earning a two-touchdown opening day win.
These early results lend credence to the argument that the Packers are now the favorite to end the 2025 season in a hail of confetti at Levi’s Stadium next February.
But, while that may be their long term prospects, Tolbert alerted me to the trap the Packers are in this week when they meet the Cleveland Browns on the road. Off their two dominating wins, and before they travel to Dallas next week in a game that will have all sorts of emotions involved on the return of Parsons to Big D, the Packers meet the Browns.
If you think talent is all that is necessary to win in the NFL, and situations don’t often rule the day, you would have thought the Buffalo Bills would dominate the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night. Josh Allen and his Bills did cash a home win a couple nights ago, but the Dolphins got the money while winning with 11 points on the spread in a ten point loss, 31-21.
Tolbert illuminated this matchup for me, and since our Friday show I dug deeper into this matchup and my survey of Nevada sports books indicated that more than 92% of all the wagers on this game are backing the better team.
The Packers are the better team, but the Browns are the better bet.
Qoxhi Picks: Cleveland Browns (+8) over Green Bay Packers