Three games are on tonight’s National Football League schedule beginning at 4:00 p.m. Pacific Time with the Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens. Later games find the Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles and the Seattle Seahawks hosting the Las Vegas Raiders.
It can be argued with empirical evidence to support the case that the Ravens, Eagles and Seahawks are better than the Colts, Bengals and Raiders no matter how you match them up. If you were to list these six teams in order, I suggest it would begin with Philadelphia and end with Indianapolis.
You don’t have to take my word for it, trust the books. The Eagles and Ravens win totals for the season is 11½ games, the Bengals 9½ while the Seahawks, Raiders and Colts are all 7½. Super Bowl odds show the Eagles favored at 6 to 1, the Ravens close behind at 7 to 1 and the Bengals 18 to 1. The Seahawks are 45 to 1, the Raiders 80 to 1 and the Colts 100 to 1.
So, with those figures on these six teams, why are the two highest ranked teams based on regular season expectations underdogs against opponents who have a combined 180 to 2 chance of winning Super Bowl LX? And why are the Seahawks a home team underdog against the Raiders?
Welcome to the preseason where often weaker teams like to gain wins given it is so damn difficult for them to get victories when the games count. Consider this, there have been two teams that suffered through a 16 game regular season schedule without collecting a win; the Detroit Lions in 2008 and Cleveland Browns nine years later. Do you know what else these two teams had in common other than 0-16 regular season records?
Wait for it … they were both 4-0 in the preseasons before their winless campaigns.
Okay, so something other than talent is dictating preseason results. So, when the public piles on the Ravens, Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs or Los Angeles Rams in the preseason because of their talent level we can consider the possibility that the underdog with the likely extra points on the spread could be a percentage play.
But, what if the public is betting on the better teams and the point spread is shifting the other way?
For years, this offered a solid play taking the side the books were on over the public wagering. But, in the past couple seasons, we have noticed that this once reliable edge has dwindled in winning percentages.
Why?
Because the books are always the smartest ones in this game. Too often bettors try to beat the books and are overmatched. My theory is not to try and beat the books but rather win with them. Follow their leads, they know what they are doing, and collect while the public is losing.
The books are smart rats. When home team underdogs were a reliable wager for decades the books nudged their point spreads just enough to erase that edge. In fact, from 1970 to 1990 home dogs in the NFL won 36% of their games straight up but got the money with the point spread more than 55% of the time. Since 2005, 34% of home underdogs have won the games straight-up, but home underdogs against the line are a 50/50 proposition with the books collecting on the vig. They knew how to erase a known public edge with slight shifts in the line.
So, while betting with the books against the public with line shifts seemingly moving the wrong way was successful for years, I am of the opinion that the books spotted the edge the informed bettors were capitalizing on and have somehow erased that advantage.
Tonight, we get to see this theory in action. The public is betting on the better teams in action tonight by percentages that hover around 60% and yet the Ravens, Eagles and Seahawks are all home team underdogs with lines that have shifted by as much as six points. In years gone by this would point to taking the Colts, Bengals and Raiders, but tonight, while we are cautious on how the books are manipulating the public action and dramatic spread shifts, we’ll stay on the sidelines and take a lesson from the results for future gains.
We do have at least one play this week that matches up on all our numbers, and we will post that game before it kicks off on Saturday.