The Denver Broncos have the best record in football with 11 wins against only two losses and a two-game lead over the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC West Division. They are at home this week and meeting another quality team, the Green Bay Packers, who lead the NFC North Division by a half game over the Chicago Bears and 1½ games over the third place Detroit Lions.
Let's see, the Broncos have the better record and are at home so how many points are they favored by in the Mile High City?
None.
They are the underdogs on Sunday.
What? Why? Are the books wrong?
We’ll get to the what and why in a moment, but let's begin with a hard and fast rule: the books are never wrong. They don’t post lines without full knowledge of what the circumstances are and how it will benefit them. The books have a multiprong job each week, and their ultimate objective is to separate gamblers from their money.
They do it very well.
I asked my local bookie how many of his clients show a profit by the end of the season, and he smiled while he said, “You.” I suspect that wasn’t completely honest, there are going to be other players who know enough about how the game works to generate profitable seasons, but studies show that it is less than 1%.
So, what do the books know this week that the average bettor, who is coming in on the home underdog Broncos like the books have got this one wrong, don’t?
The Broncos, with a two-game division lead, have house money to play with. The Packers, challenged by both the Bears, who they edged last week, and the Lions, who they have beaten twice this season, need this game more in their drive to the postseason.
Edge Packers.
The Broncos are a very interesting 11-win team. Amongst their 11 wins are victories over the Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, New York Giants and a pair of triumphs over the Las Vegas Raiders. In those five games, against teams with a combined record of 9-43, the Broncos are 0-5 against the point spread.
Okay, that may not be all bad from the Broncos standpoint. Good teams, even great teams, that keep the action in front of them, confident of a win and controlling the game on both sides of the ball, don’t have the need to run up the score on an overmatched opponent. The Broncos also have perhaps the best defense in the league and a pass rush that is on a near-record pace for sacks.
When the Broncos have faced their toughest competition, namely the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers early in the season, they got edged in second and third week action. But, since those two setbacks, they have been perfect while downing the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs. The Packers are certainly in that most recent group of four that the Broncos have beaten.
So, if we are in a bar talking about this game, good points could be made for either the Broncos or Packers winning this game.
But, from a business standpoint, with the knowledge that the books have drawn more action to the home dog in this game, we need to take our lead from the smartest rats in this game. The books set the line to entice gamblers to bet on the home team.
That lands me on the road squad.
Qoxhi Picks: Green Bay Packers (-2) over Denver Broncos