I’ve seen this before.
Okay, since I handicapped the National Football League as a kid in grade-school in the 1960’s, went to work for the Oakland Raiders in 1973, and opened Qoxhi Picks in 1981, of course I’ve seen a lot. And, more often than not, game matchups or season records have parallel situations in history.
It was 1999, the St. Louis Rams starting quarterback, Trent Green, was injured during the preseason and head coach Dick Vermeil was forced to start an unproven signal caller that had recently been stocking shelves at a grocery store.
Not exactly a formula for success.
But it was.
That quarterback is now in the Hall of Fame, in great part to the role Kurt Warner played that season when he led the Rams on a scoring surge that took St. Louis all the way to a victory in Super Bowl XXXIV. In all our years of handicapping NFL teams that Rams squad from 1999 ranks as the best offensive team of all time.
This year, the Indianapolis Colts are on their way to setting not only franchise records but all-time high-water marks offensively behind quarterback Daniel Jones. Like Warner with the Rams, Jones came to the Colts without a great deal of fanfare. Drafted out of Duke by the New York Giants in 2019, Jones spent six seasons with the Giants. He only once got the team into the postseason field and split two playoff games that year, 2022.
That season three years ago was his best in New York, and last year the Giants decided that he was not the one to lead their team to the promised land. They released him late in the season so he could negotiate a new contract with a different team. Jones spent the last couple weeks of 2024 on the Minnesota Vikings roster and then signed with the Colts before the start of the 2025 campaign.
Like Warner hitting a surprising stride with the Rams and guiding St. Louis to the then third highest season scoring total in history, 526, Jones has the Colts on pace to score 563 this season during the expanded 17 game campaign.
Now, there was one difference between the Rams success in 1999 and the high point totals by the two teams that had scored more, namely the 1983 Washington Redskins and 1998 Minnesota Vikings. The Rams won the Super Bowl over the Tennessee Titans, while the Redskins were outscored by the Los Angeles Raiders in Super Bowl XVIII, and the Vikings were eliminated in the NFC Championship Game by the Atlanta Falcons.
Is Jones on his way to guiding the Colts to their first Super Bowl triumph since Peyton Manning led the team to the title in Super Bowl XLI to complete the 2006 season?
They convinced me of their path last week when in a horrible motivational spot, they crushed the visiting Tennessee Titans on their home field, 38-14. This week, the Colts are in Pittsburgh and favored over the Steelers on the road.
This is another sweet spot motivationally for a Colts opponent, but like it was in 1999 for the Rams it is for the Colts this year. Not the year to bet against the Rams then or the Colts this season.
Qoxhi Picks: Indianapolis Colts (-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers