Only one team in football has a record better than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers five wins this season. That would be the Indianapolis Colts, who are 6-1 on the year.
The Buccaneers are atop the NFC South Division standings one game over the Carolina Panthers, one-and one half game ahead of the Atlanta Falcons, and four games up on the last place New Orleans Saints.
Before the season began, the opening line on this game projected that the Buccaneers would be a 6½ point road favorite this Sunday. Then, after seven weeks of regular season play in which Tampa Bay has surged to the top of their division standings and the Saints have won only one game in seven decisions, the line on this game opened this week with the Buccaneers favored by only 5½ points.
How can that be right?
Point spreads are not designed to be right, they are orchestrated by the books to get the public to wager on the losing side. The opening number of this game indicated that the books reaction to the Buccaneers success and the Saints struggles led to New Orleans being the percentage side of this wagering proposition.
Want to know what happened then?
The books got what they wanted. Buccaneers backers stormed the casinos to get down on their team like Pirates robbing on the high seas. By last night, eleven of every dozen wagers on this game were taking Todd Bowles’ Tampa Bay squad over Kellen Moore’s Saints.
So, how did the books move the line in reaction to this rush on the Bucs?
On Tuesday, they sliced the number a point, offering the bettors the Buccaneers giving only 4½ points. That brought more bettors to the window getting down on the first-place team over the last place team. The books responded by inviting more Tampa Bay action by shaving another half point off the number, offering Tampa Bay as only a four-point favorite. On Thursday, the books hit the week’s low spread by cutting the line on this game to the home team getting only 3½ points.
If you are following this move from the assumption that the books always move the lines in unison with public betting, you might be surprised. If, on the other hand, you are following this line move even while the public is on the Buccaneers, you are getting indicators that something else prompts the books to move a point spread. That something else is money. The books don’t care how many bets are on one side, a thousand point spread players betting a hundred dollars or less on their pick can be erased on the bottom line by one client showing up with a briefcase of wagering dollars.
While the briefcase bets don’t always win, you wouldn’t want the record going against them.
So, the wise guys are betting the Saints for this Sunday afternoon meeting in the Big Easy. The public is leaning to the obvious, taking the first-place team over the last place team.
What factors are the wise guys using to reach their conclusion that the underdog is the play this week in the New Orleans Superdome?
The Bucs season record, and first place standing has not been accomplished by a dominating Tampa Bay team. This is a squad that has won a number of games on the sheer will of their Most Valuable Player Award candidate Baker Mayfield. He has overcome an average Tampa Bay defense and some spotty offensive play with comeback after comeback.
His work has led to the Bucs holding off the Atlanta Falcons in their opener when a soon-to-be cut kicker missed a would-be tying field goal on the game’s last play. In second week action, Mayfield led the Bucs on a final minute length of the field drive to edge the Houston Texans by one point. The New York Jets haven’t won a game this year, but they lost to the Buccaneers by only two points in third week action. Two weeks later, in Seattle, Mayfield again engineered two late touchdown drives to beat Seattle, 38-35, and then followed that victory with a triumph over the San Francisco 49ers.
The only two Tampa Bay losses were suffered against two of the best teams in the league, the Philadelphia Eagles and last week’s setback to the Lions in Detroit.
In other words, the Buccaneers are not good enough to beat the best teams they have played, and just good enough to edge comparable or even inferior opposition.
Now, favored on the road after a road loss is often not a good setup for a team, and that is what the Bucs face tomorrow. Are they good enough to win this one? Yeah. Are they good enough to cover the point spread against an inspired Saints squad?
By all indicators by the smartest people in this game, the books and wise guys, no.
Qoxhi Picks: New Orleans Saints (+3½) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers