The Baltimore Ravens open the first full week of preseason action on Thursday night in a contest against the Indianapolis Colts. The Ravens come into the season one of the favorites to capture Super Bowl LX next February at Levi’s Stadium.
As good as they have been in the regular season during most years with John Harbaugh their head coach, the preseason mark they compiled from 2016 through 2022 is one of the more gaudy summer stats ever recorded. The Ravens won 23 straight preseason games with an incredible point spread mark in those games of 20-2-1.
In fact, one of their point spread losses was their final preseason skirmish in 2022, but since that point spread setback, they are winless over the past two summers against the spread in six games with a 2 and 4 mark straight up.
This week, what had become a staple for preseason bettors, taking the Ravens, has shifted now that their long pattern of success has done an about-face. This week, the Ravens are home underdogs to the Indianapolis Colts. Not only are the Ravens underdogs but the opening line has their favorite role swell more than four points from a 1½ point underdog to a 6 point home dog.
What’s the point?
Gamblers have short memories.
When the Ravens were winning, they couldn’t get off them, in fact two years ago when they lost all three of their preseason games to the point spread the public continued to back them. Last year, after betting on them in their first two games, they cooled on Baltimore in their third straight preseason point spread loss.
Now, with two years of losing on their record, the public is so much off the Ravens the books are forced to fish for Baltimore money with the extra points on the spread.
It’s preseason, so we are in the situation of looking for coaching philosophies and game plans a lot more to isolate summer winners than simple talent or apparent value on the point spread. Still, one rule applies to both the regular and preseason, avoid giving the books what they want.
What do the books want here?
They want you to take the Ravens.
Don’t do it.