Seventy-three-year-old Pete Carroll has had a coaching career that has mostly been punctuated with highs. He has taken both a college team, the USC Trojans, to a National Title and won a Super Bowl as head coach of the Seattle Seahawks to complete the 2013 National Football League season.
In one of the surprising off-season moves a year ago, he was out as the Seahawks head coach following 14 years in that post. After a year spent studying teams and calling into talk shows, Carroll returns to the sidelines this year as head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders.
This could be a match made for success.
His return to the head coaching ranks finds him opening his preseason with the Raiders against his old team, the Seahawks. The game will be played on Thursday night in Seattle, and the Seahawks opened as a 1½ point favorite in their home opener. In the past few days, the Raiders have been piled on by the betting public and the books have moved the line to where the Raiders are now 4½ point road favorites.
Why?
Well, first head coaches making their debuts with new teams have a surprisingly good record both straight-up and against the point spread in their opening game.
Edge Raiders.
The public thinks that Carroll will have extra revenge against the team that pulled off his unexpected dismissal last year.
Bad thinking.
Sure, Carroll might look forward to beating his old team, but this is not a revenge match for any of his players except Geno Smith, who was the starting quarterback in Seattle both under Carroll and last season and is now the projected starter for the Raiders. Those factors started the move by the public to the Raiders, but the recent dramatic six point spread shift appears to have the public thinking the Silver and Black are a sure thing on the road in their first preseason game.
What moved the spread so dramatically?
Carroll announced on Monday that he would play his starters in this game. That information sent the bettors to the windows looking to get down on the Raiders and sent the books into adding points to flatten the value in the popular public play.
Now, there are two sides to this equation.
Sure, Carroll may want to beat his old team, but the Seahawks are more than simply a team on the tracks about to get run down. They too have issues to deal with and players to test early given they are replacing the departed Geno Smith.
What looks like candy for the Raiders might actually turn quite bitter. Who starts is not as important as who finishes an NFL preseason game. Neither team will play their starters much past the first quarter, and while the Raiders have announced they are playing their starters that doesn’t mean they will be on the field any longer than the Seahawks starters.
As much as Carroll and his quarterback would like to pin their old team with a loss, his old team is more than poised to blunt that effort and now have the benefit of value on the line
Qoxhi Picks: Seattle Seahawks (+4½) over Las Vegas Raiders