I love games that the crowd says you can’t take.
“You can’t bet against the Kansas City Chiefs getting points,” was a common refrain last season when Patrick Mahomes and company took their perfect record into Buffalo and were slight underdogs on the point spread.
Yes we can.
The Bills at home in a much more important game for them deserved to be favored in the matchup against the 9-0 Chiefs at Highmark Stadium last November. Yes, it was close, and to cover the 2½ point spread, Buffalo’s Josh Allen needed to break loose on a late touchdown run that sealed the Bills win and pinned the Chiefs with their first loss of the season, 30-21.
The Kansas City Chiefs, with Mahomes running the offense and Andy Reid running the show, seem to be in a lot of those “you can’t” games.
You can’t bet against Mahomes and the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, was a much-heard statement both last season and when the Chiefs met the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV.
That Super Bowl between Mahomes and a late in his career Tom Brady completed the 2020 season. It was a very weird season, games played in front of nearly empty stadiums at the height of the Covid pandemic. The Chiefs were defending Super Bowl Champions that year and favored to down the Buccaneers and most pundits predicted a Kansas City win by more than the three point spread.
You can’t bet against the Chiefs.
Yes we can.
Tom Brady won the last of his seven Super Bowl triumphs while his Buccaneers dominated Kansas City on both sides of the ball and rolled to an upset win, 31-9.
The you can’t bet against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl was hollered from the mountain tops again last season, and well, you know what happened.
Yes we can.
The Eagles crushed the Chiefs like the Carolina Panthers had borrowed the Kansas City jerseys for the game, 40-22.
We’ve got another one this week that has the football world saying you can’t bet against the Chiefs getting points at Arrowhead Stadium. It is the same choir that was singing that tune two weeks ago when the Eagles came calling and were favored on the Chiefs home turf … and beat them, 20-17.
Yes we should have. But in that game, I was on the wrong side, believing getting points with Kansas City in a revenge game against the Eagles was the right side … it wasn’t.
Here we go again, just a couple weeks later the Chiefs are getting points at home one more time. This is a very rare occurrence. Since Mahomes became the Chiefs starting quarterback in 2018, his team has been underdogs at home only five times prior to tomorrow.
Want to know how the Chiefs have done in those five games?
They won one and lost four both straight-up and against the point spread.
Two weeks ago, we thought the Chiefs had a lot of reasons to beat the Eagles. The home team was coming off an opening loss to the Los Angeles Chargers and had seemingly revenge on their side given Philadelphia had crushed them in the Super Bowl. Those elements didn’t end up serving Kansas City a win.
This time, when they host the Ravens and are getting points at home, the motivational factors favor the visitors. Mahomes and company have dominated the Lamar Jackson led Ravens in previous meetings. That includes knocking The Ravens out of the playoffs on the loser's home field two years ago and edging them in the season opener last season. In all, Mahomes has met Jackson’s Ravens six times and won five of those contests while compiling a 4 and 2 point spread record.
In the realm of who has something to overcome on Sunday, it is the Ravens. Their defense was dominated by the Detroit Lions offense in Baltimore last Monday night while John Harbaugh’s team absorbed their second loss of the season. They have also been dominated by the Chiefs and come into this game with the spirit of an underdog while favored on the point spread.
The Chiefs have also lost a pair of games this season, and both teams have real issues to deal with. The Ravens are challenged on the defensive side of the ball, the Chiefs offense has struggled.
Through it all, you can hear the echoes of the football world saying you can’t bet against the Chiefs and Mahomes getting points at home.
Yes we can.
Qoxhi Picks: Baltimore Ravens (-2½) over Kansas City Chiefs