The train is on the tracks … don’t get run down.
Rock bottom is the exact time a team in the National Football League will bounce up with a big effort … sometimes that stream of success can run for a while. Last season, the Los Angeles Rams hit rock bottom after losing four of their first five games. They then went on a terror that had them be the first team to win a division title after losing four of their first five games and once in the playoffs they crushed the Minnesota Vikings after the Sam Darnold led team had won 14 regular season games. The next week, Los Angeles gave the eventual Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles their toughest challenge in the playoffs.
This year, the Baltimore Ravens lost five of their first six games and last Sunday, even without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson back in the lineup, covered a bloated point spread set when most figured he would return to action.
It wasn’t yet his time to return.
Tonight is.
The Ravens are favored in Miami against a Dolphins team that won on the road last week against the Atlanta Falcons, 34-10. That triumph by the Dolphins was so far out of their character one must wonder what is on the other side for them. The Dolphins have won only two games this season, their other victory was five weeks ago over the New York Jets in a game somebody had to win, and it turned out not to be the Jets.
In other words, the Dolphins have not looked good since getting blown out on opening day by 25 points in Indianapolis. The burning question in Miami is how head coach Mike McDaniel is keeping his job.
The Ravens dismal start to their season began when they blew a 15-point fourth quarter lead and lost to the Buffalo Bills, 41-40. In that game, with the victory almost secured, runningback Derek Henry fumbled deep in the Bills territory and Buffalo quickly turned that into a touchdown that was critical to them earning the come-from-behind victory.
Last season, two runningbacks in the NFL had tremendous years. Saquon Barkley rushed for over two-thousand yards and was key to the Eagles winning the Super Bowl. Henry led the Ravens ground attack and was instrumental in them advancing deep into the playoffs before being upended in the postseason by Josh Allen and company.
It is of historical significance to show that runningbacks who have particularly big years, both in times carrying the ball and total yardage, almost always follow that successful season with a below average campaign. O.J. Simpson became the first runner to eclipse 2000 yards in 1973, and in the following season struggled to clear the 1000-yard hurdle while averaging 1.8 less yards-per-carry.
That is the norm, in fact, all nine NFL players that gained more than 2000 yards on the ground had a drop off in the next year that always equated to a yard or more less per carry. This year, Saquon Barkley, who gained 2005 yards in 2024 has only 475 this season and is averaging 1.4 yards less per carry. Then there is Derrick Henry, as a member of the Tennessee Titans in 2020 he gained 2027 yards on the ground, but in his next season was limited to 937 yards with an average 1.1 yards less than his record campaign. This year, after gaining 1921 yards with a 5.9 yards per carry average last season, Henry has rushed for 510 yards with an average per carry down 1.2 yards and twice as many fumbles lost in 2025 than he did in all of last season.
Wait, this may just be rock bottom for the Ravens runner. And with Jackson near certain to return to the lineup tonight for a team, not unlike the Rams last year, who still can recover from being four games down to make a run to the playoffs, there is a lot of success to come for John Harbaugh’s squad.
And the Dolphins, they just may be on the Ravens thoroughfare and about to become roadkill.
Qoxhi Picks: Baltimore Ravens (-7½) over Miami Dolphins